The latest models suggest less low pressure development and less certainty about Sunday’s snow forecast. Certainly appears to be a less impressive storm.
So, once again this season, the Philadelphia area appears to escape from a potential storm. Some light snow still a possibility.
Possibly two centers of low pressure are expected to develop along a frontal boundary moving through our area later Sunday. The statistical models are highly scattered with the position of the low centers, but the latest GFS has the rain-snow line moving west to east during Sunday evening and early Monday.
A complex snow -> rain -> snow transition is possible with this storm. QPF values over 1 inch water are predicted by the NBM, suggesting a possible significant snowfall, particularly areas west of I-95.
Below average confidence at this time, but things should come into focus over the next day or so. Stay tuned.
Still away on vacation 🌴, but I thought I’d chime in on the weather for Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move across the area on Tuesday. The latest NAM model has moved up the QPF to about 0.20 inches water. Upper air temperature profiles marginally support the precipitation falling as snow, BUT near surface air temperatures will likely be above freezing for much of the time. Additionally, ground temperatures have been above freezing for awhile.
As a result, a very wet snow is expected with very little accumulation — likely just a coating, more on grassy surfaces.