An unsettled weather pattern develops over the weekend, as a deep upper air trough in the middle of the country closes off over the Great Lakes and a cyclonic flow affects our area Saturday through the early part of next week.
The cold front associated with this upper trough moves through Saturday morning with some rain, ending about noon. The unstable cold flow aloft will bring windy conditions and instability cloudiness on Sunday.
I always start my climate forecasts with a reiteration that climate prediction is very different than weather forecasting despite the appearance that they are similar. It’s an inexact science.
That said, there is an overwhelming allure among professional and amateur forecasters to attempt to predict trends in weather based on current weather patterns. So here goes.
It appears that we are experiencing a pattern change from the cold and wet pattern we had over the past year. We have just passed the second peak of the current solar cycle. This would signal a warm period for us, but the recent solar cycle expectedly peaked at a low level.
Nonetheless, we are beginning to see a pattern reminiscent of our last solar peak– increasingly dry conditions in the NE and milder temperatures. An increasing El Niño complicates the tendency towards much drier weather, but the current pattern suggests the solar influences will trump the El Niño influences.
So my climate forecast for this fall and early winter is for drier conditions and warmer milder temperatures. It doesn’t mean we’ll not see rain or snow or cold periods, but expect temperatures above average and almost drought conditions here in the NE.
A warm front is moving through this morning. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny by late morning. A cold front is expected to move through this evening, with a slight chance of some sprinkles. High temps today 82.
Cool temps for Monday and Tuesday…then beautiful, warm and dry weather for the rest of the week.