Philly Weekend Weather Outlook

Those of you following the past days forecast details would notice that the model forecast accuracy has not been at its best– the position and movement of the warm front has been difficult to accurately predict.

It appears that the warm front has finally moved past our area Friday morning (winds have shifted to the southwest).   There’s the possibility of some thinning cloudiness during the afternoon and maybe some breaks of sunshine.

In fact, the “maybe some breaks of sunshine” may be the forecast challenge for this weekend.

This weekend, we will be in a south to southwesterly flow of very moist and somewhat unstable air.  The models are predicting heavy rain for Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  Maybe you can hang your hat on this, maybe you can’t.

But if we assume that late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning will be a definite rain time frame, the rest of the weekend weather forecast is a bit more challenging.   Forecast uncertainty is high this weekend regarding details.

For Saturday, we’ll start with some clouds, maybe some breaks of sunshine, warm and humid.  High 84.  Showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop mid to late Saturday afternoon into the evening.  Rain may be heavy.

Sunday starts with lingering rain and showers, then it ends.  Thinning clouds possible in the afternoon and maybe some breaks of sunshine in the later afternoon.    High 83.

I’ll try to fine tune this during the weekend.

 

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

There’s been a forecast change with the weather models– the cold front that had been expected to move through Saturday with showers and thunderstorms is now expected to dissipate with most of the dynamics remaining far north and west.

So Saturday is now looking dry with considerable cloudiness and breaks of sunshine.  High 89

With surface winds changing to the north,  somewhat less humid weather for Sunday, with partly sunny skies .

 

 

 

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

Updated  9:30pm — A weak frontal boundary will move through early Saturday morning.  A quick light shower possible early morning on Saturday, then skies clear out with sunshine by noon or early  mid-afternoon.  High 76.

For Sunday, high pressure will nose down from the north and keep us in an easterly wind flow.   Currently the models are have fair skies for our area on Sunday, but it should be noted that an easterly flow sometimes ruins sunny forecasts this time of year.  High will be 77.

A warm front approaches Sunday night with increasing clouds.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".