In some areas today, there was a large high cirrus cloud cover, even an altocumulus congestus layer which kept temperatures down. There were more high level clouds than I had expected.
A weak frontal boundary will move through Sunday morning with cloudy skies early. The models keep us dry. Skies clear during the day as a dry northerly flow develops.
So for Sunday, clouds in the early morning with blue skies and billowy fair weather clouds in the afternoon.
A cold upper air cyclonic flow will allow mostly sunny skies for Saturday, with perhaps some fair weather cumulus developing in the afternoon. A weak upper air disturbance and front will rotate through Sunday morning and will be offshore Sunday evening.
Sat 8/16: Sunny and beautiful. High 83.
Sun 8/17: Cloudy, in the early morning with a chance of a shower. Skies clear during the afternoon. High 84.
The NAM model has again over-estimated the precipitation for this weekend and the GFS has backed off on the heavy rains as well.
Sat 8/2: A mix of clouds and maybe some sun at times. More humid. Chance of scattered showers during the afternoon and more likely during the evening. High 81.
Sun 8/3: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance of widely scattered showers. Humid. High 82.
The forecast has clarified for this weekend, and it’s looking very wet, especially according to the NAM model.
The upper air trough providing the cooler than average weather will remain entrenched aloft as high pressure in the northern Atlantic tries to build westward. As a result, an easterly/southeasterly flow from the ocean will converge with the dry, cool upper flow of the trough over us, creating a retrograding coastal warm front for the next few days.
The Shore and areas south appear to be in the maximum convergence zone and will have the most clouds and rain. The GFS has depicted areas west of Philadelphia to be among the dryer areas, although the exact placement of the moisture convergence is difficult to determine.
Sat 8/2: Heavy rain during the morning ending late morning. Some brightening skies afternoon with a chance of a shower. High 79.
Sun 8/3: Cloudy, some bright spots mid-day with a chance of showers especially afternoon. Humid. High 81.