A quick update. The model tracks have changed significantly over the past 24 hours. A greater number of models take the storm due northward, relatively far off the east coast, but hitting New England next week. This track would have a minimum impact on our area.
This morning’s NAVGEM still had the storm moving into the Carolinas. Haven’t been able to obtain the afternoon run yet. Will update again later.
Update: This afternoon’s NAVGEM follows the pack and shows Joaquin staying off the coast. Its path is now very similar to the official NHC track. Looks like this storm will have minimal effects in PHL; we may not get any rain directly from this system. Even more amazing, if the storm is far enough offshore, we might get crystal clear skies due to subsidence far from the eye of the storm.
Any update for the weekend, especially Saturday? Thanks for the honest approach with your predictions.
A quick look at the the NAM and GFS morning models shows heavy showers until early morning Saturday, then tapering to mostly dry conditions by late morning Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Fairly windy conditions and cloudy. High in the 50s. The winds are not really from the hurricane, just the pressure gradient around here.
Sunday looks fairly dry too, windy, maybe still cloudy.
The latest GFS LAMP forecast (hourly) keeps a high chance of rain through early Saturday afternoon. As I’ve mentioned before, a tropical system, even hundreds of miles away, seems to affect the accuracy of the model forecasts. The earlier GFS had precip stopping early. Now, maybe not.