Last night’s models (they’re re-run again at 1AM, EST and become available between 3 AM and 6AM) had a wide range of snow totals.
The NAM had extremely high QPF values, which I think is an outlier, although in the ‘old days’ of doing my forecasts I would have taken it more seriously, The high resolution NAM NEST had the following snow totals by 11 PM tonight—
NAM NEST Snow depth forecast- click for larger image
The statistical version of the GFS, the GEFS, which is a lower resolution model had the following—
GEFS snow depth forecast.
Last night’s European (ECMWF) had a similar map as the NAM NEST above, with a coating in the city.
I’ll be posting some of the latest models from this morning (HRRR and NAM NEST) when they become available, before I head out the door for work.
Things have changed since this morning’s models and a review of this afternoon’s models and tonight’s early evening models suggest the following trends:
The low pressure system will move slower than previously forecast and the precipitation shield will have a further westward extent. Total QPF in the city will be about 0.35 inches water, mostly falling late afternoon through about 10 pm.
Most of the precip will fall as rain—>wet snow, but some of it falling will accumulate, possibly as much as 1-1.5 inches when it ends.
The latest GFS, just available, supports the same.
