The latest NAM model output available. Extremely light snow showers until Tuesday afternoon, then possible ‘heavier’snow. Latest QPF for afternoon into evening has reduced to 0.35 inches water. Wouldn’t be surprised if it reduces further. I am returning to my earlier feeling that this is a 1-3 inch snow at most.
But read my earlier post this evening to get the philosophical view of predicting this snow ‘event’.
10:40 pm. Latest GFS continues trend of less QPF. It’s looking like a fizzler. Maybe 1 inch or so total. Not really too surprised by this trend.
Latest NAM shows the inconsistency of the modeling of Tuesday’s snow. The NAM has moved the snow to the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Additionally, the secondary low develops far from the coast.
The QPF is about 0.48 inches water, but I wouldn’t hang your hat on that number. Despite the QPF, I’m thinking 1-3 inches snow by late Tuesday evening. This “storm” could just fizzle out.
11 pm: Latest GFS maintains a similar QPF, but has the heaviest snow before daybreak on Tuesday. These are large differences and model inconsistency in this time frame suggests that neither is correct. This snow remains low confidence.
