I can see that Saturday’s forecast is going to be a below average confidence forecast. My previous forecast was NAM and HRRR based.
The area of showers predicted by the HRRR for this evening has failed to materialize. So I’m going to switch over to a GFS-based forecast. The GFS has showers later this evening and shows a high chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon.
The NAM model was a bit off last night. The thunderstorms that passed through last night were heavier than forecast; they also passed through somewhat earlier than forecast.
The clearing that was expected mid morning is on its way, closer to 11 AM in the city and later in NJ. Instead of full sunny skies (as forecast by the GFS and NAM), it looks like Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.
