The 1 am model runs have changed the QPF significantly. The NAM and GFS  are down to a 0.30 inches QPF, occurring late morning into evening. Expect about 2-3 inches.  Wow, this is a tough business!

8:30 AM Update:  Some snow pellets are falling near my home, just northwest of the city. Upper air temperatures still on the borderline for snow, but they are still expected to drop.

Ground surface  temperatures have not decreased as much as expected last night; This likely will  reduce accumulations on sidewalks and roadways, since any snow initially falling will melt until surface temperatures chill.

Air temperatures near the surface  are still expected to drop to the 30-32 and upper air temperatures should drop to support snow by late morning.

The snow totals should still be 2-3 inches, but perhaps towards the lower range.

The GFS and NAM have continued their forecast of having the low pressure system move east of the coastline and having the snow miss us.   The statistical models now show reduced chances of it changing paths.

So cancel that light snow for Friday into Saturday.   There’s still a chance of flurries on Saturday.    So the GFS and especially the NAM seemed to have done better than the statistical models with their storm track this time around.    I’ll update Friday evening.

An area of vorticity (an eddy current in the mid level of the atmosphere) is moving through today, giving us unexpected mid level cloudiness.   We get these often in November and early December, but I’m not sure why the models didn’t show this on Friday.

This vorticity accompanies a change to a southerly flow in the upper atmosphere.  Warmer temperatures expected through early Wednesday until a front moves through, bringing us much colder and winter-like conditions for Thursday through next weekend.