Somewhat good news: Last night’s GFS has brought the wind gust forecast to a generalized 60 mph, with these levels occurring around noontime.  (None of those 80 mph levels.)   The most recent HRRR is still in the 68 mph wind gust range with similar peak timing.  The NAM-NEST has backed off to the 56 mph range.

(Wind gusts is a parameter that models aren’t really the best at getting right. So the gust forecast shouldn’t be taken as literally as temperature forecasts.)

There is expected to be a line of thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front. This line of thunderstorms is expected  about 1-3 PM. (Blue Bell). Rain tapers after the frontal passage around 4-6 PM.

Brief Update Sun 10 PM—  The latest short-range high resolution models are just becoming available based on the most recent upper air measurements done at 8 PM EDT tonight.

Based on the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), the highest wind gusts will be around 1PM Monday.  Here is the latest —

Gusts over 45 as early as 6AM.

Winds and wind gusts are difficult to forecast accurately, but I haven’t seen model numbers like this in a long time.

Latest rain accumulation is 2+ inches or rain.

Stay tuned; I’ll update early Monday morning.

Revised at 10:35 AM:  The latest models just becoming available. The NAM-NEST and HIRESW have significant clouds with widely scattered light drizzle through about 3 PM.  Then skies begin to clear with some sunshine.

That’s the weird thing about model forecasts. Last night, the HIRESW models looked better about the cloud cover for today.  But the NAM-NEST accurately predicted the light drizzle we’re having now.

Strangely, the NAM-NEST had predicted more sun and much less cloudiness.

Last night, I combined the HIRESW models and the NAM-NEST, and I got rid of the drizzle in the forecast.  It didn’t work out!

The new NAM-NEST and HIRESW models will be available about 10:15 and 10:30 AM.   I’ll update after they become available.