#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia

Cold Front on Friday

Update Thu 02/16 @ 9:59 PM — A cold front moves through in the morning with some heavy rain. Tonight’s models are showing that clearing may be gradual and some sun may not break out until mid to late afternoon on Friday.

It will become quite WINDY tomorrow as temperatures fall.

I’ll be posting my regular weekend forecast tomorrow.

For next week, things may become more active, especially towards the end of the week.

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Crazy Warm

Update Wed 2/15 11:01 PM — At 10 PM, it was 59° outside. It’s February 15th.. What’s wrong with this picture?

For Thursday, rain moves in from the southwest between noon and 2 PM.

Warm Wednesday

Update Tue 2/14 9:50 PM — A warm front moves through tonight with a few sprinkles in some areas Wednesday morning before sunshine breaks out late morning. Temperatures will be very mild on Wednesday. The NBM has highs 63-65°!

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Thursday forecast – Continuation of our “Sprinter” (Springlike – Winter)

Update Mon 02/13 @ 8:43 PM — Following a slight, brief cool-down on Tuesday, we’ll warm up on Wednesday and Thursday.

Unfortunately, some light rain will start moving in sometime Thursday early afternoon. So while temps will approach or exceed 60º, it won’t be anything like a picture-perfect day. The rain will increase on Thursday night and end sometime Friday morning.

Here’s the latest GEFS forecast for Thursday evening—

What about some snow?

There have been no signs of any snow here so far this month. Today’s NAEFS forecast shows the first ‘possibility’ of light snow. (0.5 -1″) When? Next Thursday, Feb 24. (LOL)

We may get snow from the tail-end of this departing storm—

I’ll keep my eye on this, but snow lovers, don’t get your hopes up too much.

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Previously Posted Sun 10:42 PM —

What can you say about the Eagles…

Tonight’s showers move out before daybreak.

Monday will be mostly sunny, although an increase in winds is expected in the afternoon. Some cloudiness will move in during the mid or late afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.

Tuesday will be about 5º cooler than Monday.

The rest of this week will be notable for its high temperatures, Wednesday and especially Thursday, where highs look to be near 60º or more, courtesy of a strong upper ridge over the eastern US —

Another cold front moves through at the end of the week for another brief cool-down next weekend.

No snow on the horizon.

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#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia

Update Fri 2/10 4:35 PM — A quick mobile update. The precipitation on Sunday does now appear to move into Philadephia between 6-8PM. It doesn’t appear to move much further north than the immediate suburbs. The regular Weekend Weather Forecast will be posted later.

Still Some Uncertainty

Update Thu 02/09 @ 8:04 PM — So while the NAM, GFS and ECMWF posted below keep the rain to our south until midnight or after, the statistical models are not all that sure.

Here’s the NAEFS that just became available. The NAEFS combines the Canadian ensemble model with our GFS ensemble (GEFS).

Here’s its forecast probability of light rain before 10 PM Sunday —

If we set the threshold for any rain lower, as little as 0.01 inches for the six hours preceding 10 PM Sunday, here’s the probability—

This NAEFS is more in line with the latest Canadian regional GEM, the latest German ICON model and the SREF.

So it’s going to be a close call. Some sprinkles and light rain possible here during the Super Bowl, but not a sure bet. My regular readers know my mantra, “never ignore the NAM” which currently keeps us dry.

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I’m still keeping an eye on the weather for Sunday and based on today’s ECMWF along with the latest GFS , it appears that the rain will stay south of Philadelphia until after midnight Sunday. Indeed, currently there’s remarkably good agreement in the models today, considering how far apart their forecasts were just a few days ago.

Here’s the latest GFS, just available—

The forecast period in question now falls within the forecast horizon of the latest 18z NAM model (84 hours). The NAM forecast is remarkably similar to the GFS —

Even today’s ICON model (posted earlier today) has fallen in line with the other models.

So things look good weather-wise for the Eagles victory celebration.

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