Forecast Review

Fri 8:57 AM Forecast Review — The storms came through the immediate PHL area about 4 AM—

While it’s great that no severe weather was reported in our area, it suggests that yesterday’s models had over-stated the severe potential. The general timing was within range, somewhat faster than predicted, especially considering the mesoscale complex line of storms had been moving through central PA at near 30 mph.

As mentioned in my 11:04PM update (below), a few of last night’s 00z had models backed off of the heavy rain. (Actually more than a few- the RAP, HRRR and NAM-NEST, but not the three versions of the HIRESW.)

When dealing with the potential of severe weather, especially late model changes within 6 hours of a weather event, one never knows if any observed late changes in the model forecast are the result of true late changes in conditions or whether they simply reflect inadequate “model spin-up” time.

Such is the state and art of the current numerical weather prediction.

As for today, Friday, a mix of sun and clouds. Some scattered pop-up thundershowers expected from 2 PM to 8 PM as a secondary trough moves through.

Update

Update Thu 7/20 11:04 PM — While a few of tonight’s models have backed off from some of the heavy rain, the high resolution models show some impressively severe dynamics—

HIRESW-FV3. Maximum vertical velocity

Early Friday Morning Storms

Updated Thu 07/20 @ 7:46 PM — A front will move through the Philadelphia area between 3 AM and 8 AM. Strong, possibly severe thunderstorms are possible with this frontal passage. PWATs are in the 2 inch range, meaning heavy rain is possible in a short period of time. Helicity is elevated in NJ – tornadic activity possible. Thunderstorms with hail possible.

Here’s the latest 22 z (6PM) HRRR forecast for 7 AM —

Weak low pressure is expected to form along this front in the Delmarva area, possibly slowing its passage through our area. A secondary trough in the afternoon may bring some additional showers/thunderstorms to some areas.

Severity Parameter Table

As you can see from my Severity Index table, tonight’s storms have the potential of being severe in some areas with heavy rain.

Thursday Outlook Update

Updated Thu 07/20 @ 10:07 AM — Correction/Clarification: Based on the new morning models, the showers/thunderstorms tonight, now expected between 1 AM and 5 AM, will be the result of a warm front. Showers should end in the morning. The associated cold front will move through during later Friday afternoon, with additional scattered storms. More specifics this evening.

Thursday Outlook Update

Updated Thu 07/20 @ 8:56 AM — A cold front is approaching the region today and there’s some uncertainty with the timing of the rain associated with the front that’s expected later tonight.

The GFS and RAP models have an earlier onset of the showers/thunderstorms: about midnight tonight. The HRRR is slower with the rain: It shows some showers overnight but has a large area of rain moving through mid Friday morning. Total rainfall about 0.75 inches.

The HRDPS is similar to the RAP and GFS forecast: the rainfall starts about midnight to 2 AM.

As for the daytime, many models are showing some large areas of cloudiness with breaks of some sun about 2 PM this afternoon. A few very isolated showers possible this afternoon; most areas dry.

More details about the rain/thunderstorms later this evening to follow with an update this evening.

Thursday-Friday Outlook

Updated Wed 07/19 @ 8:47 PM —Tomorrow had been forecast to be rainy, but the latest HRDPS shows little in the way of rain or even pop up showers during the afternoon—

The front expected to move through on Friday, now appears to come through before daybreak Friday with some showers/thunderstorms. Friday is looking better, but maybe some thunderstorms in the late afternoon.

Updated Wednesday Forecast

Updated Wed 07/19 @ 10:48 AM — It appears that some additional showers are developing just to our west this morning in an area that the RAP model showed as having high moisture convergence—

The predominance of models from this morning show showers developing here by 2 PM, as forecast below in in HREF So my earlier attempt using satellite imagery that delayed showers until this evening just may be too primitive and incorrect.

Updated Wed 07/19 @ 9:36 AM — An area of showers is moving away as I write this and the forecast question for today is when and where will the next impulse set off showers?

The forecast you heard on radio/TV is “scattered showers throughout the day”, a tacit acknowledgement that these things can’t be pinned down. And they likely can’t be. (It doesn’t keep me from trying.) Indeed, the freak downpour that occurred near Washington Crossing, Bucks county on Saturday is a perfect example of the sometimes chaotic nature of weather.

The ensemble models have several areas and time frames for additional showers today. Here’s the current (06z) HREF forecast for 2 PM—

Here’s the current 06z HRDPS which shows almost no rain at 2 PM—

I’m searching the water vapor image for signs of a next impulse—

Wednesday Outlook

Updated Tue 07/18 @ 5:49 PM — The storms only developed in NJ today and nothing is expected this side of the Delaware River for the rest of the evening.

Wednesday looks to be unexpectedly “interesting” weather-wise. The cold front that triggered Tuesday’s storms in NJ will return as a warm front during Wednesday.

An area of strong moisture convergence, instability and upward vertical motion will set up near the Philadelphia area.

Showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as 9 AM and will blossom over our area early afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms may linger into the evening hours. Heavy rain is possible with these storms in some areas.

Here’s the latest HRRR forecast for the rain Wednesday—

Tuesday Forecast Update

Updated Tue 07/18 @ 11:23 AM —

This morning’s NAM-NEST confines all the activity to New Jersey, even later this afternoon. So maybe nothing for the immediate PHL area.

Tuesday Forecast Update

Updated Tue 07/18 @ 8:34 AM — The upper trough and the disturbance that is expected to cause thunderstorms in our area this afternoon are clearly visible on this morning’s water vapor image—

The trends from last night still remain— the upper air support diminishes as the disturbance approaches. Most of the heavier activity is expected in NJ. Some dry air filters in at some levels and the PWAT is reduced.

Here’s the HRDPS depiction of the rain coverage—

The HRDPS still has some storms as early as 2-3 PM, now in western suburbs. Groups of storms will be disorganized, not necessarily a line of storms. Some areas may see nothing at all. Some scattered activity lasting to about 8 PM in our immediate PHL area.

Some storms that do form may be strong to severe. CAPE values still moderately high and instability values are highly elevated.

Update Mon 7/17 9:50 PM — Just a quick update. Tonight’s early models are forecasting a weaker frontal passage and dry air moving in Tuesday afternoon. This would significantly decrease the chance of thunderstorms Tuesday.

Check back tomorrow morning .

Tuesday Thunderstorms

Updated Mon 07/17 @ 8:48 PM — First let me say that the HRRR smoke model is forecasting for tonight to have the most smoke pollution in this area and things improve Tuesday.

A cold front moves through sometime Tuesday afternoon or or early Tuesday evening. There are large differences in the timing of the front, with the HRDPS having early to mid afternoon storms here, moving into NJ later in the afternoon.

There are also giant differences in forecast PWAT, with the HRDPS having values near 2.2″ while the HRRR is in the 1.6 to 1.9″ range.

The NAM and HRRR have most of the activity late in the afternoon and early evening. Most models seem to have the greatest activity in NJ.

There isn’t much storm activity forecast for the western suburbs of Philadelphia, so at the current time it appears that the areas from Philadelphia and especially east into NJ will be the most impacted, with NJ possibly receiving the heaviest rainfall.

The latest HREF model captures this emphasis of having most of the activity east into NJ—

There will be plenty of CAPE and somewhat elevated vertical shear Tuesday. Storms could be strong to severe. If the PWAT forecast by the HRDPS is correct, some of the storms could again produce local flooding.

We’ll have a better handle on this tomorrow morning.

Peak Smoke Thursday

Updated Thu 06/29 @ 10:17 AM —It will become increasingly smoky here in the Delaware Valley today, although values will be significantly less than a few weeks ago.

Using the latest HRRR smoke forecast—

At near ground level (8 meters or 27 feet). ( A few weeks ago we were at 190!)

Thursday-Friday Forecast & Weekend Outlook

Updated Wed 06/28 @ 9:32 PM — A nice day on Thursday. Plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Some increased smoke to contend with tomorrow.

Smoke level near ground tomorrow – 11 compared to 190 a few weeks ago. Still quite noticeable—

Friday will be very warm to almost hot. Mostly sunny, but some cloudiness at times, increasing in the afternoon. High in the upper 80s.

Saturday will have considerable cloudiness with showers early morning and again in the late afternoon. Much cooler.

Sunday will be warmer but with rain and thundershowers at times during the day. Possibly the most rain of any day this extended weekend.

Monday and Tuesday, the 4th, will have plenty of showers and clouds, some sun, warmer and more humid.

Check back for details on the smoke situation tomorrow morning.

Wednesday Forecast Update

Updated Wed 06/28 @ 9:40 AM — Each model has varying degrees of cloudiness and sunshine today. A mix with more sunshine after 2 PM according to the latest NBM, but I would say today’s cloud cover forecast is a lower than average confidence.

Little in the way of scattered showers, mostly far northern areas.

The weekend is still looking unsettled and somewhat wet as we will be north of a diffuse boundary separating very hot humid air to our south and somewhat cooler air over us and to our north.

Low pressure systems are expected to move along this boundary, from late Friday through at least Sunday—

Wednesday Forecast

Update Tue 6/27 11:00 PM —Even more sun on Wednesday than previously forecast.

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 8:11 PM — Wednesday looks better than the past two days. Some sun possible in the morning, mostly western suburbs, then considerable low clouds at times with some sunny breaks in the afternoon. A few very widely scattered sprinkles move through during the afternoon. Most areas will not see a sprinkle

Hard to believe, but the weekend is looking fairly unsettled with rain at times.

Tuesday Forecast Update

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 5:26 PM — The earlier arrival of the storms as predicted by the high res models was closer to reality. Additional activity may move in and intensify from now until 7 PM here in Philadelphia.

Tuesday Quick Forecast Update

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 11:39 AM — A quick update based on this morning’s high resolution models. Most models this morning have showers moving in as early as 3 PM -4 PM (3 PM western suburbs) with peak activity 5-7 PM in the immediate Philadelphia area.

Unlike yesterday, these storms will move through New Jersey.

Unlike yesterday, these storms will be moving from west to east instead of south to north.

• Peak wind gusts 40-45 mph in some areas.
• Strong to severe storms, possibly stronger than yesterday.
• Hail possible, especially in New Jersey
• Forecast is for intensification as the storms approach Philadelphia and the Delaware River and move into NJ.

Tuesday Forecast

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 9:53 AM — Latest HRRR model forecasts showers and thunderstorms moving in as early as 4 PM today. Peak thunderstorm activity expected between 6 and 9 PM.

Latest RAP mode has similar early break out storms, but main line of storms moves through at 9 PM—

Last night’s 06z HRDPS is right in the middle with a 7 PM maximum—

Total rainfall expected

Monday night update

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 9:31 PM — The main group of storms is poised to move into the immediate Philadelphia area with the next hour or so. Some of these storms are expected to be strong, possibly severe. Not much of this activity is expected to cross into New Jersey and eastward.

Radar/Water Vapor Image at 9:32 PM—

I don’t think the model forecasts were very good today. One bright spot— they had correctly predicted that little activity would move into South Jersey.

More storms expected Tuesday afternoon about 4-5 PM according to the latest 00z HRRR.

Update

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 5:16 PM — Latest NAM-NEST just available shows the heaviest rain and storms tonight in western and northwestern suburbs—

The NAM-NEST shows several groups of storms, an early group about 6-7 PM and a second large group moving towards Philadelphia between 8 PM and midnight. The western suburbs get the heaviest activity.

Problematic Forecast

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 4:15 PM — I’m looking at the latest HRRR and the live water vapor image. I have this terrible feeling that this afternoon’s forecast has been all wrong.

Most of the activity for the afternoon have moved off to our northwest and there’s activity currently in NJ that was not forecast to occur at this time.

So the first cluster of storms forecast for 3-5 PM isn’t happening here.

The main activity is now expected this evening.

The latest HRRR has the second main cluster of storms (9 PM to midnight mentioned earlier) still moving through. Here’s the updated HRRR forecast for 11 PM—

Monday Storm Update

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 12:45 PM — After reviewing this morning’s high resolution models, here’s what I see happening today—

1. The models are not capturing this event all that perfectly. Many models have been showing storms developing this past morning that have not materialized.
2. Strong and or Severe storms still likely, but will occur as several groups or clusters rather than a single line of storms.
3. Severity parameters all highly elevated, except for vertical shear values. High vertical shear keeps the storms moving intact and intensifying. These may affect areas, fall apart, then re-form.
   • First cluster about 3-5 PM that lingers. May not move into NJ.
   • Additional clusters, mostly west of Philadelphia and near the city early evening.
   • Additional storms 9 PM to midnight. which may diminish in intensity as they enter into NJ.
4. Wind gust near 40-45 mph in some isolated spots. Most areas with wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range.
5. Most models are suggesting that the storms reaching eastern areas in NJ will decline in intensity or fall apart.

Monday Morning Update

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 9:42 AM — The latest 12z HRRR just available. Here are the latest changes.
Storms move into and develop in the Philadelphia area earlier, about 3- 5 PM. Another line of storms moves through between 9 and 11 PM.

I don’t see the 60-70mph wind gusts being advertised in the immediate PHL area, only near Allentown and south into Maryland. (Always listen to the NWS for these details.)

The storms will be more scattered and clustered instead of a distinct line that moves through.

More updates sometime around 1 PM, after all the 12z models have come in.

Heavy Thunderstorms Forecast Monday

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 8:49 AM —The media has been all over the forecast for severe weather today. So what’s going on?

A prefrontal trough, currently located in western Pennsylvania, will move through our area this evening. (The actual cold front will come through tomorrow.)

The trough is visible in satellite water vapor imagery this morning—

A prefrontal trough is a distinct wind shift line with significant moisture convergence and strong vertical dynamics. Here’s the NAM-NEST position of the trough and moisture convergence at 4 PM—

Current Timing of Today’s Storms

Based on the current water vapor image, some showers and thundershowers are possible this morning, especially in Bucks county and far western suburbs, but a shower anywhere can’t be ruled out this morning.

With conditions as unstable as forecast, some storms will break out again after 3 PM. The main line of storms is forecast to move through about 7-9 PM, an hour or so earlier in western suburbs. Some storms may linger as late as midnight.

It’s unclear how far any extreme weather will move east into New Jersey. Most of the current models have the main dynamics moving towards Philadelphia but affecting mostly western and northern suburbs. This may change.

How Severe?

As we can see, far western areas (western Chester counties, Berks and Lehigh counties will be most affected. Areas north of Allentown may see possible tornadic development.