Posted Saturday 10/26/24 @ 4:45 PM — Still keeping an eye on the potential for some rain here in Philadelphia, but we’ll have to wait until November 3rd though November 6th, according to the statistical ensemble models and the GFS, ECMWF AI models.
The latest GFS Graphcast Machine Learning-AI model is the most aggressive with some rain and low pressure development—
GFS-GRAPHCAST AI model forecast for Monday Nov 6th.
The latest ECMWF-AIFS is less aggressive with low pressure development and rainfall here—
ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Monday November 4th. Of interest is possible tropical development near Cuba. Some of the ensemble models show moisture from this tropical development moving up the coast towards us. (Click on image for a larger view.)
An interesting article in today’s Washington Post on AI weather models —
A cold front will make a dry passage through the area tonight. It will take some time for the cold air to filter in, so Saturday will be in the mid 60s and temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s Saturday night.
Sunny skies will continue Sunday with highs dropping to the upper 50s to near 60º in some spots. Cold temperatures Sunday night before things warm up again into next week. Indeed, we may see temperatures near 80º on Halloween!
With so little happening weather-wise in the short term, I’ve been checking the extended range models and newer AI models for any signs of some rain here, Our next chance of any rainfall appears to be between November 2nd and November 5th. Some of the extended statistical ensemble models hint at some unsettled weather during this period and perhaps a pattern change.
Here’s the latest ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Sunday, November 3rd—
10-25-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Sunday November 3. A cold front moves through. Much of the heavier showers stay to our northwest, but there are signs that low pressure may form along the front, giving us more rainfall during the following days. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Friday 10/25/24 @ 11:28 AM — Our next chance of any rain appears to be the first few days of November. Unfortunately, the latest AI and ensemble models show an upper air ridge in our area that may seriously reduce the amount of rainfall we get ahead of a cold front.
Here’s the ECMWF-AIFS forecast for November 2
ECMWF-AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Model) forecast for 8 PM Saturday Nov 2nd. Light showers ahead of a cold front, dissipating as they move eastward. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Here’s the GFS AI model forecast for Sunday Nov 3rd—
GFS Graphcast AI Machine Learning Model forecast for Sunday Nov 3 at 7 PM. Again, upper ridge will reduce our rainfall potential. (Click on image for a larger view.)
On the more positive side is the NAEFS (ensemble model combined GEFS and Canadian ensemble). It’s forecasting more rain and possible coastal tropical system near Florida. Likely not correct—
NAEFS forecast for Wednesday Nov 6th . Tropical system hinted at near Florida coasts. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The Drought Continues
Posted Thursday 10/24/24 @ 5:01 PM — I can’t remember the last time I saw so many large sprawling high-pressure systems on the weather map. Our dry weather is expected to continue into the first few days of November.
Until that time, we’ll have some colder periods towards the end of this weekend as a second cold front moves through early Saturday. We’ll see another warm-up next week. And mostly sunny skies shall prevail.
I may have to rename this blog, “The Rain Watch”. I’m currently using various statistical ensemble models and the ECMWF-AI and GFS-AI models to see about our next chance of rain
We may finally get some rain, albeit, hardly a drought-buster, sometime in the November 3rd through November 5th time frame.
Here’s the ECMWF-AIFS forecast for November 3—
ECMWF-AIFS forecast for 7 AM November 3. A cold front moves through with about a quarter inch of rain, possibly more if low pressure develops along the front. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Tuesday 10/22/24 @ 4:27 PM — As mentioned yesterday, two cold fronts will move through in the coming days; one late Wednesday night into Thursday and another late Friday night into Saturday.
These frontal passages have been forecast to be dry, but today’s ECMWF and Canadian RGEM show a deeper trough moving through with enough lift for with some sprinkles, mainly in NJ late Wednesday night. The few sprinkles forecast are supported by the experimental REFS. (The ECMWF-AIFS shows no showers.)
We’re only talking a one or two hundredths of an inch in a few locations.
During the weekend, our current well above average temperatures will drop to noticeably cooler levels.
The GraphCast AI-Machine Learning version of the GFS has moved the chance of rain here further down the road into November from yesterday’s forecast. So the drought continues.
10-22-24 00z Graphcast-GFS forecast for Monday, November 4th. Our first chance of light rain?? (Click on image for a larger view.)
No Rain
It’s been a long time since things seemed so dry outside. And the current extended range forecasts keep thing dry for us over the next two weeks!
Yes, there will be two cold fronts moving through this week. The first one will result in a familiar pattern of having any rain shear off to the far north and west of the city—
Today’s ECMWF shows showers only far north of the city. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Another cold front moves through Saturday. The models had been forecasting some light showers for us, but those have all but disappeared in the forecast—
Today’s GFS forecast for Saturday. Grey black is cloud cover. Essentially no rain with this front. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I’m still playing with the highly experimental AI-Machine Learning version of the GFS. It still seems to show the first chance of any substantial rain here is November 3rd!
Graphcast GFS (AI Machine Learning model ) forecast for November 3rd. (Click on image for a larger view.)
