LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING

[su_note note_color=”#defcdc”]Today’s models continue with the idea of weak low pressure developing along the front as it moves through early Wednesday.

There are differences in timing and snow amounts, but the statistical models, the GFS and the European have increased snow totals to 3 inches. We’ve seen these forecasts change drastically, but I’m letting you know that some amount of snow is expected during the morning rush hour on Wednesday.   Stay tuned [/su_note]

On my previous forecast, I mentioned that I would keep an eye on the strong cold front  moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  I mentioned that snow showers were possible Wednesday morning.

The most recent model runs suggest a trend that the rain mixes with and changes to snow sometime after midnight Tuesday as the upper atmosphere chills down, supporting snow.

While strong cold fronts often scour out any residual moisture, the models are showing that some weak low pressure development occurs along this front as it moves through, with moisture lingering after the cold air moves in aloft.

Latest GFS model forecast for Tuesday 11 PM showing snow-critical temperatures (arrows) have moved southeast of us.  Cold enough for snow. Shading is simulated radar.

The GFS has about 1 inch of wet snow for the Philadelphia area ending about 9-11 AM Wednesday morning  The NAM about 0.8 inches.   We know that things change.   Stay tuned.

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Little change in the forecast since my “outlook” was posted yesterday.

Fast moving high pressure will bring cold temperatures for Saturday.  Saturday starts with some cloudiness, but skies clear by early afternoon.  It will be cold.  High 38º (based on the NBM model) or 43º ( based on the EKDMOS).   I think the colder model will be correct.  It will be breezy.

Early Sunday morning, a weak warm front moves across with some clouds early.   Skies clear for sunshine by mid morning.  Milder but still below average temps.  (High 43º NBM or 45º EKDMOS)

Rain for Monday and Monday evening.  A strong cold front moves through late Tuesday. 

Rain, turning to snow showers early Wednesday morning.  Very cold Wednesday and Thursday.   I’ll keep an eye on the system for late Tuesday into Wednesday.

[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]For you weather model fans, the NBM (National Blend of Models) gets an upgrade to version 3.2 next week Dec 17th.  The NBM combines several short and medium range model forecasts, including  the European and Canadian models and statistically weights them according to their performance over their first six hour forecast accuracy.   It’s run every hour.  It’s been very good at predicting rain vs snow and total precipitation. [/su_note]