The coming weekend is going to be unseasonably cold and dry. The coastal storm’s track has consistently been forecast to pass south of the Philadelphia area late Sunday into Monday.
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Despite my winter long range climate forecast for a cold winter in Philadelphia posted last weekend, the latest climate models show the balance of December to be somewhat milder than average. This change is predicted to occur later next week. We’ll see if this happens. [/su_note]
There’s still wide model spread with the coastal storm that’s expected late Sunday.
Most of the models had been suppressing this to our south, but last night’s models, particularly the GFS-FV3 and the Canadian CMC are showing trends towards it moving up the coast, giving us snow.
Most of the statistical models (EKDMOS and NBM) and the operational European (ECMWF) keep a low chance (30%) of this happening, but this needs to be watched. (The chances have been increasing.)
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Tuesday night’s models keep the storm just to our south.[/su_note]