WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

[su_box title=”Forecast update Sunday 8 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Warm air retuning in the mid levels of the atmosphere is causing this layer of altostratus this morning. Light snow has developed with this pseudo-warm front feature. None of the models had picked up this feature. These clouds should dissipate by late morning. High temperatures 42-44.[/su_box]

The current pattern can be summarized as cold air remaining in Canada with small dips in the jet bringing colder air over the Northeast, which then alternates with a warmer southwesterly flow of moisture bringing rain.

Low pressure will move off the coast tonight and weak high pressure will build in. The flow will remain cyclonic from the departing low through Saturday afternoon.   Saturday will be fairly windy and cooler.  Highs about 48-50.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Fri 11PM Update: Saturday high temps 45-47[/su_note]

Winds 15 mph with gusts.  Following some sun early, the cyclonic flow will cause some altocumulus cloudiness during the mid day hours into the afternoon, then will dissipate as winds subside.

For Sunday, weak high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies and more seasonably cool temperatures.  Highs 42-44.

High clouds move in late in the afternoon on Sunday as the next wave of warmer air and rain approaches for late Monday into New Years Eve. (Bravo to the new FV3-GFS which predicted this bad weather for New Years Eve well over a week ago, although it was originally predicting a snow storm two weeks ago. )

Things chill down toward the end of the week, as the GFS has the possibility another brush with rain or light snow Thurs evening.

 

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

All models are on-board with a low pressure system that moves in late Thursday into Friday.  Rain, possibly heavy (more than 1″), is very likely for much of Friday.  It will  be very mild. High temperature near 60.

Saturday dries out and it will be colder and closer to seasonable.  There may be instability clouds.

There’s a wide range of model forecasts for Sunday, as a low pressure system tracks to our south. We may get some light precip Sunday if the low tracks a bit further north.  Type will depend on timing, but mostly like very light rain showers.

The storm I mentioned a week ago for New Years  Eve/Day is on track to be a rain-storm.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Right now, I don’t see much in the way of snowy winter weather.

There’s no giant slug of cold air predicted to descend into the central US.

Cold intrusions will repeatedly occur in the North Eastern section of the US that will effectively block storms coming up the coast.

These cold intrusions will alternate with mild air and wet flows. Things would have to change big-time for my colder-than-normal climate forecast from late November to become a reality. [/su_note]