Still away on vacation 🌴, but I thought I’d chime in on the weather for Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move across the area on Tuesday. The latest NAM model has moved up the QPF to about 0.20 inches water. Upper air temperature profiles marginally support the precipitation falling as snow, BUT near surface air temperatures will likely be above freezing for much of the time. Additionally, ground temperatures have been above freezing for awhile.
As a result, a very wet snow is expected with very little accumulation — likely just a coating, more on grassy surfaces.
A clipper disturbance, similar to what we’ve seen several times this winter, will move through from the northwest during the day on Tuesday. Low QPF values are predicted, with amounts around 0.10 inches water or about 1, maybe 2 inches of snow currently expected. Temperatures will drop further after the clipper passes.
The storm expected to develop along a front for Friday is looking to be mostly rain, as intensification occurs after the front passes. Still needs to be watched.
(I’m currently away on vacation 🌴 this week, so updates will be less frequent and less detailed than usual. )
A significant warm up is expected Saturday as winds shift to the southwest.
Saturday will be mostly sunny. High 55. An approaching front will bring cloudiness later in the day on Saturday.
Low pressure moving up from the south will provide moisture for considerable rain on Sunday.
Sunday will be rainy and mild with highs again near 55.
Temperatures drop back on Monday with very cold temperatures again by Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another warmup.
Some of the model solutions, particularly the statistical models, are suggesting that additional low pressure along the front may bring some mixed precipitation snow to eastern areas, especially southern NJ, on Monday. Not a certainty.
Of greater interest will be a deep coastal storm that may affect us on Friday. Current track suggest this may be a rain changing to snow event. Too early to be sure. Either way, the great changes in temperatures will result in an active period of weather this coming week.
A period of above average temperatures begins this weekend.
Saturday will be sunny and mild. High near 53.
Sunday will have increasing cloudiness. High 48.