A quick update on the status of the winter weather for Wednesday night into Thursday.
As mentioned, this storm’s track is less variable than many. What varies from model to model is the westward extent of the precipitation shield.
Tonight’s models have a wide range of QPF for the immediate Philadelphia area. The NAM suppresses the precipitation to the east, with a very low QPF. The GFS has more extension of the snow shield westward, with a QPF of 0.30. The experimental National Blend of Models has a QPF of 0.21.
Right now, I’m leaning towards the low levels of the NAM for PHL. That would mean about an inch of snow. The NAM is historically good when precipitation is suppressed.
(The GFS suggests 4-5 inches.). Still too soon to be sure. Stay tuned.
The latest models maintain an off-shore track of the storm Wednesday night into Thursday. A slight westward trend that existed a few days ago has become almost imperceptible.
With the track of the storm remaining mostly unchanged, the difference in the forecast depends on the size of the precipitation shield around the storm with the some models having a large enough shield of precipitation to affect south Jersey and somewhat reaching PHL and its immediate suburbs. Other models, notably the NAM, have kept the precipitation shunted to our east.
The new experimental National Blend of Models maintains a 52% chance of snow with an accumulation of about 1.5 inches in PHL, more south and east in NJ. Some of the other new statistical models also show a near 50% chance with overall amounts in the 1-2 inch range.
So right now, a minor storm for PHL, somewhat greater for Atlantic City and Cape May and northern New England. Things have a way of changing, but right now, the actual track, off-shore, is unusually consistent and doesn’t show the variability of past coastal storms. Stay tuned.