The first amplification of the jet stream this season occurs the end of this week, with high pressure diving down into the central part of the US.
Along the frontal boundary that will be right off of the coast, a low pressure system is expected to develop and move up, somewhat off the coastline. At this time, it might affect NJ and southeastern PA with light snow Friday night. Of course, if the upper trough sharpens and deepens, more of our area will be affected. If the trough becomes broader, we’ll miss the snow.
The statistical models now show something possible, but precip will be light and low probability.
This scenario has been suggested by the long range models for several days; the latest GFS run suggests greater intensification allowing light snow to reach westward into NJ and SE PA.
Stay tuned. (The models didn’t get the cloud cover correct for today; not sure we can trust them with 5 days in the future.)