Yesterday’s cloud base did lift and thin, but we never saw the degree of clearing that was forecast by the HRRR or NAM-NEST models. Showers moved in, as expected, about 5 PM, but the northern-most extent and their duration into the evening hours was greater than predicted by any model.

For today, (similar to last Sunday), several upper air disturbances are causing the cloud deck right now.  Sun should break out later this morning, but another upper air disturbance is expected about 4 PM (not talking about the Eagles here.)  So, another period of cloudiness possible later.

The coastal storm for mid-week mentioned in last Friday’s post remains difficult to forecast.  The NAM and Canadian GDPS have 1-2 inches of snow (less in the city) late Tuesday afternoon into evening.  The GFS shows less development and a coating at most. The GFS has done the best this season with these storms.  This storm is still beyond the range of the shorter range models.  Stay tuned.