Only the NAM Nest and WRF-NMMB models predicted the earlier clearing and sunshine that we saw Saturday afternoon. So what does that say about the Monday model forecast? More about this in a moment

First, for Sunday: Departing deep low pressure will bring some clouds on Sunday morning as upper air disturbances rotate through our area.  More sunshine expected by Sunday afternoon.  Windy and chilly with highs in the mid 40s.

Monday: The latest models continue to predict a cold air damming event with warm moist air rising over entrenched cold air at the surface.  Snow is expected about 8-9 AM Monday and will change to and mix with sleet and freezing rain. The current prediction about the changeover time (snow to a mix) is late morning or early afternoon. It may remain a mix for a prolonged period. Total QPF has remained low and expected snow/sleet totals remain less than an inch.  (Tonight’s NAM shows a much higher QPF, which I’ll ignore for now.)

For this storm, I’m going to focus on the NAM NEST, the NBM and the WRF-NMMB, which did the best with today’s weather.

We won’t have a real handle on Monday’s forecast until tomorrow.  Stay tuned.