Rain for the Phillies on Sunday? Probably not.
Update Fri 10/21 @ 9:56 AM — As is often the case with coastal low pressure systems, the forecast speed and track varies from model to model. The general trend has been for a slower progression (except for the GFS) keeping any rain at bay until very late afternoon.
The latest GFS is an outlier with the system moving faster but further east. (still missing us!) A known bias of the current version 16 of the GFS is too fast movement of coastal systems.
Current GFS forecast for 2 PM Sunday—
The latest NAM at 5 PM Sunday—
The latest ECMWF has the rain moving in late in the afternoon and very light in the city—
Interestingly, the GEFS based on the GFS still has rain moving in during the afternoon, although quite light—
So..what’s going to happen? I’m going with the ECMWF-GEFS blended forecast right now. This is very similar to the NBM (model Blend). Very light rain moves in during the mid to late afternoon Sunday. It will be cloudy and somewhat windy. Not an ideal baseball weather backdrop, but it won’t affect the Phillies!
Updated Thu 10/20 10:50 PM — Tonight’s NAM is slower with the rain moving in on Sunday. The rain moves in late afternoon to early evening. The NBM has some very light rain earlier.
Update Thu 10/20 @ 5:38 PM — Many of this afternoon’s models have trended towards a slower northward movement of the coastal system on Sunday and things are looking somewhat more optimistic for a relatively dry (or much less wet) Sunday afternoon.
The latest NAM shows most of the rain still to our south at 1 PM—
The model blend (NBM) which incorporates many models but tends to lag 6-12 hours with changes, still shows some light rain here in the afternoon—
The afternoon GFS will be available shortly I’ll do a quick update later after 10:45 PM when this evening’s NAM becomes available.
Update Thu 10/20 @ 9:49 AM —Increasingly nice weather through Saturday as high pressure builds in over us. Warming temperatures and sunny skies.
Unfortunately, the Phillies may have to play in the rain on Sunday, as all models have joined in the forecast of rain developing Sunday from a coastal low. The ECMWF has joined the NAEFS from yesterday with an upper low and sharp trough along the coast—
ECMWF accumuated rain forecast —
Update Wed 10/19 @ 9:32 PM — The latest GFS continues with rain for Sunday, as does several other models. (The hold-out is the German ICON model which has a slower system that stays to our east.)
The latest GFS—
Possible change in Sunday’s weather forecast
The weekend forecast had been looking dandy. But the latest NAEFS shows a coastal low affecting our are with rain on Sunday. I’ll look closer at this later today.
Updated Wed 10/19 8:16 AM —The Washington Post has a good article today on long range winter forecasts.
Update Tue 10/18 @ 5:07 PM — Continued chilly weather at night. Here’s the latest NBM minimum temperatures for Tuesday night into daybreak Wednesday—
Milder temperatures for the weekend. The weekend looks real good!
Previously Posted Mon 5:53 PM —
It’s been well-advertised that a strong cold front is moving through today and considerably colder weather will be with us for the next few days.
A strong upper air low is over Canada and is gradually moving eastward, allowing colder air to move in tonight through Thursday.
Here’s the ECMWF model showing the current situation in the jet flow—
We’ll fall into the 30’s Tuesday night into Wednesday mornng. There’s a wide range of uncertainty (high standard deviation) regarding exact low temperatures—
It will be windy, especially Wednesday and Thursday—
Following the showers and thunderstorms moving through this evening (Monday), no storms on the horizon through the weekend.