Posted Friday 08/02/24 @ 4:26 PM — Obviously, the models were about 3 hours too slow with the passage of the showers and thunderstorms. Indeed, the entire forecast from yesterday has changed; instead of the storms lingering and developing over the I-95 corridor this evening, this line of storms is now forecast to move east and away this evening.
Posted Friday 08/02/24 @ 12:57 PM — A quick update. This morning’s models have returned to forecasting some showers and thunderstorms in most areas. Most likely timing is- starting 5 PM or so in western Montgomery, Bucks and Chester counties, between 6-7 PM in Philadelphia and eastward into NJ. Heaviest rainfall is still forecast north and south of Philadelphia.
Posted Friday 08/02/24 @ 9:42 AM — What was looking like a slam-dunk drought-buster of a rainfall later today is now looking questionable. The latest HRRR shows most of the rain shearing off to our far northwest.
Just to see, I downloaded the latest hourly experimental RRFS 10z and it has heavier rain in some places, but also has large parts of the Delaware Valley with little to no rain! Here’s the latest RRFS—
10z RRFS has rain in southern and northern parts of the Delaware Valley. (Click on image for a larger view.)
To add to the uncertainty, the NAM-NEST and HRES are showing showers and storms right now, not occurring on actual radar. That undermines the rest of their forecasts. So an uncertain forecast. Some areas here will have some substantial rain, some will have little or none.
Current Water Vapor and MRMS radar at 8 AM with superimposed RAPthickness, MSL isobars and upper air windstreams. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I’ll update later.
A Pattern Change. Rain?
Posted Thursday 08/01/24 @ 4:59 PM — Just when I started to use the word “drought”, the models are forecasting a pattern change for the coming week. Additionally a tropical system is expected to form near Florida and the moisture may move up the coastline towards us next week.
We’ll see the first evidence of the pattern change late Friday and over the weekend— A deepening upper level trough will have embedded waves of low pressure bring showers and thunderstorms to our area—
GFS Upper Air forecast (700mb ~ 10,000 feet) with relative humidity. The waves (L) will induce showers and thunderstorms as they rotate up through our area Friday evening and over the weekend.
For Friday, a mix of sun and clouds will still allow high temperatures to be 95º-96º. An increasing likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, from west to east from 2 PM into the nighttime hours. Yes, the rain is actually forecast for the immediate Philadelphia area.
Additionally, a tropical system will form somewhere near Florida. It may or may not reach hurricane strength. The GFS has the storm quite developed by Sunday afternoon on the west coast of Florida. as does the Canadian Global. The ECMWF isn’t on the same page, though. So we’ll have to see what happens in the coming day.
12z GFS forecast for 2 PM Sunday (Click on image for a larger view.)
Thu 4:52 PM —Forecast Review — Once again, the strongest 500mb vorticity couplets predicted the general locations of the showers and thundershowers today, basically northeast and southwest of the Delaware Valley—
Radar at 4 PM (Click on image for a larger view and for animation.)
Things are usually more complex with thunderstorm development (moisture convergence, frontal movement, jet stream influence), so I don’t think this is any magic forecast solution.
Hot Thursday
Posted Thursday 08/01/24 @ 11:12 AM — Today’s high temperatures will be between 95º and 97º, depending upon your location. With forecast dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, the apparent temperature (heat index) in most areas will exceed 100º—
This morning’s 12z NBMapparent temperatures at 3 PM (Heat Index) Contours are 1º F (Click on image for a larger view.)
Thunderstorms, if any, look to be even more isolated than yesterday.
Yesterday’s NAM-NEST 500 mb vorticity was pretty good at identifying the likely areas for development of showers. Storms will be less likely and more isolated. Likely development is 3:30 PM to 6 PM. Today, we’ll use the experimental RRFS absolute vorticity—
Today’s 06z experimental RRFS 500 mb absolute vorticity. Red-Violet vorticity couplets indicate strong vertical motions. Red boxed areas are most likely to see isolated showers/storms between 3:30 PM and 6 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Showers Thundershowers?
Wed 5:43 PM —Forecast Review — Showers and storms did develop east of the I-95 corridor as suggested by the morning’s NAM-NEST—
NexRad Radar with “Q-Vectors” indicating upward and downward motion. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The showers west of the city died out as they approached.
Posted Wednesday 07/31/24 @ 1:47 PM — A review of upper air parameters suggests showers and thundershowers between 4 and 8 PM from the city and eastward. Here’s the NAM-NEST
NAM NEST model absolute vorticity at 7 PM Red-blue couplets of negative and positive vorticity usually is a strong signal for precipitation. Then again, we’re in a dry period. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Our Dry Weather
Posted Wednesday 07/31/24 @ 9:29 AM —The warm front went through last night; the rain and dynamics sheared off to our northwest.
We’ve been in an extended pattern where storms dissipate as they approach the Philadelphia area resulting in very dry conditions locally.
I’ve seen this before and I have, in the past, passed along several theories for the phenomenon, none of which totally satisfy. Most recently, this occurred in the summer of 2022.
The overall feeling is that “dry begets dry” and the lack of soil moisture is a negative feedback loop for thunderstorm (convection) development. The other factor, although esoteric, are the dry patterns associated with the upswing in the sunspot cycle, although we are just past peak—
As an additional thought, they call our area the Delaware Valley for a reason; there’s a drop off in geographic altitude as we move east from Berks and Chester counties to the coastal plain of New Jersey. That descent results in air moving downward, negating any weak upward motion that was available for rain and convection.
None of these fully explain the purely local phenomenon of repeated collapse of thunderstorm development in the immediate PHL area during some seasons.
As for today, Wednesday, the models are showing a chance of isolated showers in NJ and northward near Lehigh county late afternoon. Hot and humid is the story for today.
Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) with superimposed MRMS RADAR. I’ve drawn in the departing warm front the the two small upper air troughs (blue dashed lines) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Update
Posted Tuesday 07/30/24 @ 9:52PM — Tonight’s models have backed away from the showers and storms tonight. They are falling apart as they approach our area. The latest HRRR has little rainfall. How do you spell the word “DROUGHT”?
Posted Tuesday 07/30/24 @ 5:36 PM — The models are still showing showers and embedded thunderstorms to move through between 9 PM and 1 AM. Current MRMS radar—
MRMS radar image 5 PM with RAP model Omega (vertical motion) contours (blue) and WV. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Additional scattered showers expected through the night and through much of Wednesday as the warm front moves through and an upper trough moves through.
I wish I felt more confidence that we will actually see some rain here.
Tuesday Forecast
Posted Tuesday 07/30/24 @ 11:12 AM — As a forecaster, yesterday was a disappointment; It’s not common to see every model be wrong forecasting showers and thunderstorms for late afternoon into the evening.
So, I today, I’ve waited to post the forecast in order to see the morning models. I heard on the radio this morning about showers and thunderstorms during the daytime. I don’t think so.
A warm front is approaching today and this morning’s models keep us dry during the day—
Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) . I’ve drawn the approximate location of the warm front. (Click on image for a larger view.)
A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move through from west to easttonight between 9 PM and 1 AM. No severe weather currently expected, although some areas may have some heavy rainfall. (Wouldn’t that be nice!)
We’re heading into another heat wave once this warm front clears our area. Expect temperatures on Friday to be in the upper 90s to close to 100º
Forecast Update
Posted Monday 07/29/24 @ 5:40 PM — Despite most models showing scattered to isolated showers and storms for late Monday afternoon, current radar isn’t showing these showers and water vapor imagery doesn’t show any well-defined triggers at this time.
An isolated shower is still possible through 9 PM, but I wouldn’t count on one.
Monday Forecast Update
Posted Monday 07/29/24 @ 10:04 AM — This morning’s models are consistently forecasting isolated showers and thunderstorms developing between 3 PM and 9 PM this evening, as a result of a disturbance rotating around the upper closed low that has moved to our northeast.
Here’s the HREF probability of radar echoes > 40db at 8 PM—
HREF probability of radar echoes> 40db at 8 PM The probability is not related to areal coverage. All areas in the max zone won’t necessarily see any rain at 8 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)
We’ll also notice some smoke today. The HRRR shows a peak about 3 PM as plume moves through.
HRRR smoke model at 3 PM. Half atmosphere level. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Originally Posted Sun @ 8:01 PM — Our weather this week will be influenced by a upper level trough over the northeastern US with several disturbances passing over the upper level ridge in the central US. An advancing warm front will add to the mix—
Sunday’s Water Vapor image with drawn warm front. Several disturbances (L) will move across the central US ridge and Combined with an approaching warm front and cyclonic flow over our area will result in unsettled weather and showers/thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The timing and placement of the showers are likely to change over the next day or so, but expect unsettled weather.
For Monday, clouds and some sunshine. Some scattered showers/storms expected Monday afternoon.
More widespread rain/thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Fri 11:30 PM – The two versions of the WRF model just available show showers as early as 1PM Sunday and more sun than the GFS or NAM. High temp 86-88 on Sunday.
The WRF model forecasts have been really impressive lately. The downside is the model comes out late, only forecasts out to 48 hours and is only run twice daily. But accuracy is worth the wait. [/su_note]
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Fri 10:45 PM – Tonight’s NAM has more sun, less cloudiness on Saturday afternoon, more clouds on Sunday. [/su_note]
Saturday will begin with the incredibly nice weather we had today (Friday).
As the crisp, unseasonable airmass over us moves off to the east, weak low pressure from the Midwest will pass to our north on Sunday. A southwesterly flow of increasingly humid and unstable air will move in for Sunday.
Saturday will start sunny and delightful. High temperature 82-84. During the afternoon a very weak “pseudo warm front” will approach. An increase in cloudiness expected with mostly cloudy skies by late afternoon.
Sunday will be mostly cloudy (some bright spots possible), warm and increasingly humid. As the warm front slowly moves to our north Sunday, light showers are possible in the morning, mostly far north and west, although a sprinkle or quick shower can’t be ruled out here. With increasing heat and humidity and an upper air disturbance moving through, expect showers and thunderstorms to break out in the afternoon.
The FV3-GFS I spoke of earlier this week has fully replaced the older GFS. The “FV3-GFS” after this past Wednesday IS the “GFS” now.
The GFS has the chance of light showers as early as 1 PM. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is expected during the late afternoon and evening hours according to both the NAM and GFS.
I’ll update over the weekend to give a more specific timing and indicate whether some areas will have any severe weather.
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]What’s with this cool weather? Remember, we’re just coming off the 10 year sunspot cycle minimum. Back in the summer of 2009, we had fewer days in the 90s and many similar very cool spells. I’ve talked about this in the past.[/su_note]
