Over the weekend, we spotted a pair of Eastern Bluebirds in the woods surrounding Fort Washington State Park. Wish I had gotten a better picture.
Eastern Bluebird
First Snow Flakes Tuesday in Philly (?)
An Alberta clipper system will bring a chance of light snow late Tuesday afternoon .
As always, there are differences between the NAM and GFS models with the NAM showing about .15 inches of water and the GFS showing about .03 inches of water(QPF). Both models have the upper atmosphere cold enough for snow but both models also show surface temperatures to be above freezing.
With the QPF values in this low range, it is not out of the question for the precipitation to miss us or only affect northern areas. Either way little or no accumulation is expected due to temperatures being too warm.
The afternoon NAM has backed off on the QPF. It’s down to .01 inches. So maybe a flurry in Philadelphia, maybe not.
It is expected for temperatures to drop behind the clipper so any moisture lingering may freeze later Tuesday evening. I’ll update later tonight.
Tonight’s NAM QPF is again 0.01 inches water, the GFS has 0.04 suggesting a snow flurry or quick snow shower at most.
Sunday Weather Update
The warm front will move through our area this morning (Sunday) about 10 AM and showers will taper around noon or a bit later. Highs will be in the upper 50s and perhaps higher if we get some breaks of sun in the afternoon.
Updated 1 PM: The short range HRRR model shows showers developing ahead of the cold frontal passage.. There may be several lines of showers moving through PHL between 2 PM and 5 PM as the front moves through.
An approaching strong cold front will move through around sunset today. Frontal passage is expected to be dry. Skies will clear this evening and gusty winds will drop temperatures about 30 degrees by Monday morning; we’ll go from near 60 today to the upper 20s tomorrow morning.
The frontal passage this evening marks somewhat of a weather pattern change for our area. It appears that for the next week or so, we will be under the influence of a typical winter mid level trough, bringing cold temperatures, probably below average.
Associated with this new pattern will be an increase in the possibility of clipper systems, eddy currents of spin (vorticity) that provide lift and cause light precipitation. Tuesday shows a clipper system that may bring light snow or flurries to our area for the first time this season, although most of the action passes to our north.
The longer range forecast models continue to be highly inconsistent– a possible coastal storm development for next weekend seems to come and go with each successive model run.