A quick update. Too early to really call this but the latest GFS model has (at least) 12-15 inches of snow starting some time after noon Friday and lasting into Saturday night. Expect changes with this forecast.
Tues 7 PM update: Snow starts between noon and 5 PM Friday. Looks more like only snow and less chance of a mix for Philadelphia and north and west. It may end earlier- early Saturday evening instead of lingering. That’s the current picture.
A quick update. Latest GFS model just available shows a major snowstorm possible late Friday through Saturday. I first mentioned this possibility last Saturday.
Again, there have been several storms that were incorrectly modeled for our area this season, but this one is looking like you’ll need your snowblower working. Still too far off in the future to be certain, but all the ingredients seem to be lining up.
I’ll update tomorrow.
Tues 8 AM update: The snow arrives earlier, about noon on Friday. May mix with rain in NJ before a change back to snow. Looking increasingly likely
It’s been a mild and easy winter so far, and quite frankly, I’ve enjoyed the lack of snow and the mild temperatures. (It’s a fallacy that all weather people like ‘bad weather’….maybe just those hyping it on TV.)
As mentioned, the medium and long range models haven’t been too consistent or accurate in the long term this winter, having shown a few big coastal storms for us that disappeared a few model runs later.
HOWEVER, the models (GFS and ECMWF) hare been showing for this weekend, specifically late Friday through Saturday time frame, the development of a deep coastal storm that may give us our first significant snowfall. Unlike previous predicted storms that turned out to be modeling errors, this storm has shown consistently for the past week and there is relatively good agreeement between different models. .
The big uncertainty is the exact track, which is based on the amount of amplification of the jet stream. A deamplification may bring in mixed precipitation to areas– The usual north and west of I95 vs south and east scenario. The model trends have been showing a deamplification trend after the storm, so this predicted snowstorm could easily turn into a mixed precipitation event. Stay tuned.