Wednesday 10pm: Latest NAM model has light rain showers possibly mixed with light snow late Thursday night for eastern portions of South Jersey, ending early Friday morning, as a wave of low pressure moves a stalled frontal boundary off the coast. The trend has moved this precipitation westward. The NAVGEM model had shown this westward extent yesterday and now shows light snow as far west as Philadelphia late Thursday night into Friday morning. Stay tuned .
The model predictions continue to change in the period beyond 5 days.
I’ve been monitoring the coastal storm that is expected to form Sunday night off the southeast coast. The track of this storm has continued to shift south and east, missing us in the latest GFS model.
The clipper system that was expected to spawn a secondary low off the coast, giving us snow late Monday now appears to transfer its energy to the above mentioned low pressure system far off the coast. As mentioned, these northern stream clipper systems often fizzle out and this is the current trend with this system.
So what looked like another possible snowstorm for the Monday timeframe now appears to be less likely. Possibly some light snow or snowshowers is all that may occur. Things may change again, so stay tuned.
The cold outbreak for next week still looks likely.
As has been the case all winter (with the exception of the “blizzard”), the model forecasts beyond 4-5 days has been anything but consistent.
The models had been suggesting a deep surface low to develop Monday in the southeast and move up the coast. HOWEVER, the latest trend is for this track to be off-shore and miss us.
A new wrinkle in the forecast is a clipper-type system to move in later Monday from the northwest and undergo secondary cyclogenesis off the coast, possibly giving us snow later Monday. But these types of scenarios are the least predictable of all storms- they can often fizzle or development occurs too far north and east.
So, some snow is certainly possible in the Monday time frame, but it doesn’t appear to be the type of storm that is any more than a nuisance. Still very low confidence forecast.
One thing that seems consistent is an expected outbreak of very cold weather for next week, as the jet stream takes a deep dive. If that plays out, we’ll have our coldest weather of the winter next week which will dig as far south as Florida.
The next week or two looks to have a very active weather pattern, probably the most active this winter.
Following the possibly heavy rain this Wednesday, the jet stream undergoes several deep amplifications with cold air diving south as moisture emerges from the Gulf of Mexico. The first such amplification on Friday allows the moisture to miss us, but subsequent cold outbreaks next week will result in some impressive storms. It will be a roller coaster regarding temperatures.
Too early to tell if it will be snow, rain or a mix for each one but it will certainly get interesting. Nothing looks like the “blizzard” we just had, but the storminess and temperature swings looks to be impressive. Stay tuned.
Tuesday 8 pm update- The low pressure system this Friday still expected to just miss us, moving to our east. One model has it grazing the jersey shore. A large coastal storm still possible Monday-Tuesday timeframe but timing and track has high variability with different models. Much uncertainty here.
Deep upper air trough with very cold weather next week; we may hear the term “polar vortex”by the end of next week.
