The GFS and NAM continue to keep the upper air configuration less sharp and any storm development is to our far south and east. So it looks like the EMCWF (European model) wasn’t correct with its prediction of a coastal low this Saturday. There’s NO SNOWSTORM for this weekend.
The newer and experimental statistical models maintain a low chance of light snow showers from an upper air disturbance (weak clipper) moving through on Saturday. Otherwise, continued unseasonably cold weather is the forecast.
Maybe you’ve noticed that the media weather forecasts have been hinting at a snow storm for this coming weekend. So what about this?
The short version is that the European model (ECMWF) is showing the development of a deep coastal storm in the Friday night through Saturday timeframe. However, the latest US models show less amplification and a weak storm that scoots out to our south. The newest statistical experimental models show some low probability storm and the probability has diminished over the past few days.
So the bottom line is that we simply don’t know yet. I know the ECMWF tends to be better than the GFS in the long range especially in winter, but I’m not convinced about this possible storm for Saturday just yet. I’ll keep an eye on it. Stay tuned. I think we’ll have a better handle on it within the next model runs tonight.
