Uncertainty in Sunday’s forecast was a known issue.  But clearly there’s uncertainty in today’s forecast.  An upper disturbance, ahead of the front has moved into our western suburbs and will cause showers and possibly a scattered thunderstorm as it moves through Saturday morning.

A rule of thumb in weather forecasting- if the models are incorrect in the short term forecast, it suggests even more uncertainty in the longer range (Sunday in this case).

The models have changed since yesterday and so has the forecast.

High pressure will block the advance of moisture from the south and  the  significant cloudiness previously expected will be less for later today, Saturday.

For Sunday, the expected easterly flow changes around to a southerly flow with less cloudiness. High pressure will nose down from the northeast, keeping us dry and reducing the cloudiness that had been expected.

Overall, a nicer weekend weather-wise is expected, specifically more sunshine on Sunday afternoon.

I was out early today and noticed the cumulus was really building in some spots. Some dark clouds and a quick look at the radar- sure enough, there were some scattered showers.  Apparently there was enough low level wind convergence to cause this.

The models really blew this forecast-  Just when you think the computer models are incredible, you get this sort of poor forecast.