Uncertainty in Sunday’s forecast was a known issue. But clearly there’s uncertainty in today’s forecast. An upper disturbance, ahead of the front has moved into our western suburbs and will cause showers and possibly a scattered thunderstorm as it moves through Saturday morning.
A rule of thumb in weather forecasting- if the models are incorrect in the short term forecast, it suggests even more uncertainty in the longer range (Sunday in this case).
Checking the short range models- the HRRR and the LAMP forecast model- neither accurately depicted the shower location and intensity that moved through this morning.
The HRRR and the LAMP forecast have low chances of showers for the rest of the day….can we believe it?
Saturday night update – Latest NAM has a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Sunday.