Category Archives: Weather Updates

Weather Updates

ZETA REMNANTS WEATHER UPDATE

Despite the complexity of the weather scenario regarding the remnants of Hurricane Zeta moving through our area, the models continue to show  similarity in timing, and have the usual range of rainfall amounts.   In general, the models show the heaviest rain from Philadelphia south into Maryland and Delaware.

GEFS Accumulated Rain The GEFS has 2.5-3.0″  (Click on image for a larger view.)

This will primarily be heavy rain event for us, although some gusty winds (> 30 mph) are expected late Thursday evening into early Friday morning.

Here’s the range of expected total rainfall, with amounts in the 2-3.5″ (European) ECMWF,  2.0-2.6″ (Canadian GEM), German ICON 2.0- 2.5″.

The GFS and GEFS show 2.5-3.0″  of rain.

For some reason, the Model Blend (NBM) is  in the lower range of 1.25″.

Rain starts after midnight Wednesday and continues through Thursday.  Some lingering showers possible on Friday.

Temperatures near or below freezing are expected Friday night.

Weather Updates

SUNDAY FORECAST UPDATE

Note that the NBM mean temperature’s sd (standard deviation) is very large.  Be advised that several models have high temperatures only in the upper 40s!

 

An interesting weather week coming up, as a tropical system will move into the Louisiana area and merge with a strong non-tropical low pressure system in the Midwest.  This will affect us later in the week, likely Thursday into Friday.

GEFS Model Forecast Wed 11 AM (Click on image for a larger view.)
Weather Updates

SUNDAY WEATHER UPDATE

The models overstated the cloudiness for this afternoon big time. A beautiful afternoon. I guess there was a good reason the NBM showed such high uncertainty.

While there had been uncertainty about the cloud forecast for this afternoon, the latest models show significant cloudiness this afternoon and the NAM-NEST, HIRESW and NBM show the possibility of scattered light sprinkles moving in about 2 PM from the east.

 

This morning’s low temperatures at 7 AM, based on the RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis)

RTMA  temperatures at 7 AM Sunday morning (Click on image for a larger view.)