The ultra short range models (HRRR and LAMPS) haven’t been doing too well predicting the morning showers today (Saturday) in Philadelphia. A line of showers/thunderstorms went to our north through Bucks county and another area of showers is fallling apart to our south.
The actual warm front boundary is very diffuse, but based on dew points, it’s just to our west and south. The GFS-based LAMPS still maintains a chance of showers between now and 4 PM, but it’s hard to hang your hat on that forecast.
If the warm front passes through and we get breaks of sunshine, instability alone could trigger scattered showers, but predicting location is going to be even more difficult than this morning’s forecast when we had a distinct trigger.
Sunday is still looking to be sunny, hazy, hot, humid and dry.
The models are are showing the warm front to move through early Saturday morning, accompanied by showers and maybe a thunderstorm. After the showers and morning cloudiness, there should be breaks of sunshine by the afternoon, as temperatures rise towards 90 with dewpoints in the uncomfortable low 70s.
The models have scaled back the precipitation for PHL considerably, since yesterday. Most of the precipitation is shearing off to our far north and west this morning.
This morning’s NAM model just became available and it has light showers possible during the afternoon with a QPF of about 0.20 inches. (But with the current trends, who knows if we’ll even get that much.) Still lower than average confidence in this forecast.
Not a wash out by any means today- cloudy, cool for July 4th. Some scattered showers. Just clouds tonight and no rain for the fireworks.
Better weather returns Sunday- sunny with highs upper 70s to near 80.
