Yesterday’s rain did occur mostly in the (late) afternoon, but the models didn’t exactly hit a home run with the forecast. (The precip was further north and west for most of the day than previously expected.)
Such is the case with upper level closed low forecasts– the exact placement of the precipitation maxima are difficult to forecast.
Today’s forecast accuracy will also be affected by the same situation. The GFS initialized LAMP forecast has a continued chance of showers here for much of the day. The NAM initialized HRRR forecast has the upper low pivoting the moisture away from us, with most of the rain in MD and DE during the afternoon.
The HRRR did well yesterday, so we’ll see if the rain stays mostly to our south in the afternoon.
A front moves through early Sunday with a chance of a shower around daybreak. Then clouds break for partial sunshine by around noon. Windy with temperatures cooler than previously expected. High around 65
A quick update- No significant changes since yesterday, except the NAM has been trending towards colder surface level temperatures. QPF values still about 0.80. Timing of precipitation still looks on schedule, with snow starting about 8 AM or so and ending a around sunset.
The unknown is how much dynamic cooling will occur if precipitation rates are high. Still likely to be only grassy surface accumulations, except where elevations are higher and except where bursts of heavier precipitation allows for dynamic cooling. Either way, interesting weather for April.
10AM: This morning’s NAM model has brought the QPF way down to 0.40 inches water. With less precip, there will be less dynamic cooling and even less likely for there to be accumulation.
