5PM Update:  Well, it looks like the models might have blown this one(?)  And when the models get it wrong, I get it wrong.    (The GFS LAMPS is still showing sleet for a few hours this evening.  Can we believe it?)  I’ve eliminated the freezing rain references below.

As I mentioned yesterday,  “This falls into the category of a dusting or coating and at this low QPF level, this sometimes can translate into a complete zero.”

Will the TV forecasters acknowlege that the models blew the forecast or are they going to search for some area to our north and west that had some snow to validate their forecasts?

Last night’s NAM and GFS models have increased the QPF to about 0.15 inches of water falling mostly as snow.

Snow starts about 2-3 PM in PHL and continues through until 9 PM. Areas south of Philadelphia Airport will have snow mix in with sleet and possibly some freezing rain after 5 PM, reducing snow totals there.

This will be very interesting meteorologically regarding precipitation type– 

The models are predicting a wet snow, with surface temperatures just at or above freezing.  Temperatures in the upper half of the atmosphere are just marginal for snow formation, indeed in other scenarios, I would be predicting mostly sleet and freezing rain.  The models predict temperatures in the lower half of the atmosphere  to be cold enough for snow, at least north of  PHL airport.

So to me, this temperature profile appears to be an unusual one and I’m interested to see if we get mostly snow or mostly sleet or snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain. .

The latest NAM model data just became available.  The NAM QPF prediction is 0.16 inches water or about 1-2 inches of snow for Philadelphia, ending before daybreak Friday.

This is pretty much in line with this afternoon’s GFS model data.

It’s too early to check the data for Saturday, but this afternoon’s model runs kept the storm off the coast, only brushing eastern NJ.  It’s likely not to affect PHL, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

10 PM Update-  Well, I looked at the completed NAM run and it has the Saturday storm tracking even closer to the coastline.  Tonight’s NAM cranks out a few inches of snow for PHL on Saturday.   I’ll update tomorrow

A quick update.

Today had more clouds than forecast.

Sunday will become cloudy during the afternoon.  Highs in the mid to upper 40s.

The weather change for the end of the week again looks interesting with the chance of light snow Thursday and the possibility of a more significant snow in the Sunday-Monday timeframe.  Either way, a more active and cold pattern developing.

Sunday 2pm -The latest model runs continue to be less definitive about low pressure developing along the strong cold front and there is plenty of model disagreement with speed and cyclogenesis.  The Thursday through Sunday timeframe needs to be watched for storm development.