A weak warm front moved through before daybreak. Dew points have already started to climb and winds have shifted to the south.
The general consensus is a mix of sun and some clouds at times today. High temperatures somewhat lower than predicted by the GFS (87)- most models are in the 82-83 range and the NBM consensus comes in with a similar range. The statistical EKDMOS comes in at 83-85.
A line of thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon/evening mostly in the Pottstown/Reading Allentown areas to our west. These storms will intensify and train in the area. It’s unclear how far east these will move. Some models have the storms approaching Philadelphia about 8-9 PM but diminish in intensity significantly. Some models keep the storms to our west. NJ may not see much of anything tonight from these storms.
Saturday will be a mix of sun and clouds in the morning due to an upper air disturbance, becoming mostly cloudy by 1-2 PM. Light northerly winds 5-10 mph. High 68-70. Rain moves in by 11 PM tonight.
Sunday: The GFS has joined the other models with rain much of the day. Very cool easterly wind flow with high 54-56.
[su_box title=”Weather Update 11 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]The latest NAM has a second slug of heavy rain moving in this evening, as an upper air disturbance (vorticity) slows exit of the surface low and enhances the precipitation.
There may be that taper in rain in the afternoon, but the NAM is forecasting heavy rain to return by 7-8 PM tonight.[/su_box]
From earlier this morning:
The latest short range models, the HRRR, RAP and NBH suggest that the main slug of rain tapers off today about 1- 2 PM with a break in the action until a second slug of precipitation arrives about 5 PM. The HRRR even keeps that second slug of rain to our south.
The main GFS and NAM (2AM EDT runs) keep the rain going into the evening.
