[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]Some new information will be included in these forecasts going forward—
Forecast max temperatures will be based on the National Blend of Models (NBM) and will now include the “standard deviation” (“sd”) in ºF to show the amount of forecast uncertainty and model spread.
The specific run of the NBM used will include the latest EKDMOS forecast. Perhaps the best of all worlds! [/su_note]
Last night’s models continue with forecast that light sprinkles and considerable cloudiness will linger through 12-2 PM and considerable low level cloudiness may linger until 3-5 PM. Clearing northwest in the Allentown area earlier—
NAM NEST Forecast for 2 PM showing lingering showers and clearing near Allentown and areas north and west.
High temp 51.6º standard deviation (sd) 1.7º for Blue Bell
Somewhat good news: Last night’s GFS has brought the wind gust forecast to a generalized 60 mph, with these levels occurring around noontime. (None of those 80 mph levels.) The most recent HRRR is still in the 68 mph wind gust range with similar peak timing. The NAM-NEST has backed off to the 56 mph range.
(Wind gusts is a parameter that models aren’t really the best at getting right. So the gust forecast shouldn’t be taken as literally as temperature forecasts.)
There is expected to be a line of thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front. This line of thunderstorms is expected about 1-3 PM. (Blue Bell). Rain tapers after the frontal passage around 4-6 PM.
