The model forecasts for Sunday have changed a bit since I posted yesterday.
Originally Sunday was expected to become sunny early in the morning. Today’s models are suggesting that considerable mid and high level cloudiness lingers into early afternoon as a weak trough moves through. Then some sun and partial clearing.
Some of today’s models had light, very widely scattered sprinkles around noon, and tonight’s early RAP model just becoming available shows that possibility too. Most of the models do not or keep the POP very very low. So, some uncertainty with tomorrow’s forecast regarding this.
[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Sun 11:49 AM — This morning’s GFS data, just available, continues to show the convective precipitation to our south at 7 PM. (See the main forecast update below.)
GFS Convective Precipitation forecast 7PM Sunday
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[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Sun 10:34 AM — The newer high resolution models becoming available this morning continues with my forecast update just below. The somewhat older NAM model just available still shows some convective activity possible in the afternoon—
Latest NAM model with convective activity shown in the brighter green/orange/yellow at 2 PM
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Last night’s models have backed away from the heavy rains expected in the Philadelphia area this morning. However, light intermittent rain will continue through today. Total QPF predictions of 1 + inches of rain have been reduced down into the 0.3-0.6 range.
High temp 53.0º sd 4.1º. (High spread uncertainty)
Additionally, there had been expected to be some convective activity (thunderstorms) in the late afternoon. That activity is now predicted to be diminished and, if it occurs, will break out south of Philadelphia, closer to far south Jersey and Wilmington during the early evening.
The vertically stacked low pressure system causing this will be slow to depart and will likely affect our weather into Monday.
