Category Archives: Updates

FORGET ABOUT THOSE SNOWFLAKES?

From earlier Wednesday—

Today’s forecast of snow flurries was always on the edge of not meriting a blog post. But I wanted to keep my skills honed, so it’s been the subject of my recent two posts.

I’m ready to bring this to a close.   Today’s models continue with the trend of the clipper system coming through, although none of the models just available  show this current radar situation at 9 AM (which could be showing precip evaporating before reaching the ground).

Current 9AM Radar Loop (courtesy of weathertap.com)   (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

HRRR Precipitation Type forecast showing light rain sprinkles north of Philadelphia  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Indeed, this morning’s models don’t show any precipitation reaching us until 12-2 PM, and being extremely light, mostly north of us, with the lowest layer of the atmosphere too warm for even snow flurries. 

So, there’s a disconnect right now with current conditions and model forecasts. The non-event of possible light snow flurries could just become light rain sprinkles or just be a total non-event.  Let’s see what happens.

 

 

THANKSGIVING ForEcast UPDATE

Thu 09:15 AM Update —  The latest HIREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast- pre-release version) cloud cover forecast for 1 PM Thursday—

HIREF-EXP3 (pre-release) cloud forecast  (Click on image for a larger view.)

from Tuesday…

Tonight’s models just becoming available show the front moving through 6-8 hours earlier in the day Thursday than previously forecast. Showers end early afternoon followed by some clearing by mid afternoon.