Thu 09:15 AM Update — The latest HIREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast- pre-release version) cloud cover forecast for 1 PM Thursday—
from Tuesday…
Tonight’s models just becoming available show the front moving through 6-8 hours earlier in the day Thursday than previously forecast. Showers end early afternoon followed by some clearing by mid afternoon.
The models are again holding back the rain until late afternoon.
Based on the latest model runs, very light scattered sprinkles are possible 3-5 PM today in the immediate Philadelphia area, but the main area of rain arrives between 5-7 PM, moving up from south.
Last night’s model runs show a somewhat earlier approach of the rain Sunday afternoon, now expected between 2 and 5 PM, earlier far southwest of Philadelphia.
Indeed, current observations (Real Time Analysis) in West Virginia and Virginia show a larger swarth of rain now than had predicted by most of the models. The model blend has moved the precipitation earlier.