Broad Street Run Forecast Update- We had a little more sunshine than predicted this morning. I’m always glad to be wrong about this. Cloudiness did move in during the afternoon.
Some showers will be moving in Saturday evening.
For tomorrow, Sunday, the models continue with a break in precipitation during the morning hours for the Broad Street Run. Minimal precipitation expected in the morning hours (QPF< 0.01 inches water) but rain returns after 2 PM.
It will be cloudy, cool with high temperatures in the mid 60s and a breezy north to northeasterly wind.
Experimental GFS model- Accumulated precipitation during the morning hours 8AM to 2PM Sunday. Most models keep the immediate PHL fairly dry in the morning hours.
While the operational models (NAMGFS) maintain dry conditions in the morning, the statistical models maintain a chance of light precipitation during the morning. (12Z-18Z)
Ensemble Kernal Density Model Output Statistics (Experimental)
The evolution of the storm that had been predicted to bring snow to Philadelphia continues. Lets’s cut to the chase- there’s no snow for Philadelphia on Saturday. Here’s the current model forecast:
The cold front is expected to move through before 8 AM on Saturday morning. Depending upon your model of choice, either light rain showers (GFS), or close to zero precip (NAM) falls before 8 AM. Temperatures too warm for snow during the precipitation before daybreak; after the front passes, it will be unseasonably cold for April on Saturday, but dry.
So Saturday is dry after 8 AM.
The front sinks further south and low pressure develops much further south than had been forecast earlier in the week. Any snow will be much further south than our area.
GFS Forecast Saturday night 2 AM
Depending on the sharpness of the upper air flow, the low pressure may track as a coastal storm that brushes south Jersey Saturday night (GFS) or misses our area entirely (NAM) Saturday night. It will likely miss us, since I favor the NAM in these situations.
