Updated on Thu 3:31 PM: This morning’s GFS model with its earlier precip arrival and its less impressive, less severe weather may be on-target. The lack of sunshine this afternoon has kept a lid on some of the instability. I guess we’ll see.
Updated- Added 16z NBM meteogram
First, most of this morning’s (Wednesday’s) models have backed off on the thunderstorm potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some models maintain a slight chance from just south of the city into Delaware and south Jersey.
Thursday looks to be much more active, as a strong cold front approaches and upper air disturbances move through in advance of the cold front.
A warm front moves through early Thursday morning. Several models forecast showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning with this warm front.
Additional showers develop early afternoon and then again in the late afternoon and evening. Some of the dynamics may be very strong late Thursday afternoon, as the forecast jet stream energy has increased from previous model runs.
The actual front moves through around midnight and before dawn Friday.
I’ll be updating later this afternoon and evening with more specific information. Stay tuned.