It’s winter. It’s going to get very cold for 2-3 days.
It’s the beginning of February. A strong cold front will move through tonight. Wind chills will bottom out Friday night, near and below zero with sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts to over 30 mph. The big thing will be the wind chills.
Wind chill forecast from tonight’s 00zNBM model at 1 AM Saturday —
Tonight’s 00z NBM showing wind chills (“apparent temperatures”) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Saturday will have highs in the mid 20s. Wind chills in the teens.
Things improve by Sunday afternoon and next week, we’re back in the upper 40s and into the low 50s!
Update Wed 02/01 @ 10:55 AM — I don’t see any snowstorms in the next 10 days. The one chance, this Sunday into Monday, has fizzled even more—
NAEFS statistical “mode” forecast for Monday at 4 AM. Dip in the jet is minimal, not cold enough. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Wed 10:51 AM Forecast Review — We had that brief coating of snow last night. Some of last night’s models (HRRR, NAM) were pushing the the light coating only into NJ.
MRMS: Where was there a coating last night. Predicted Maxima didn’t occur in NJ, but further south. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The NBM was late to pick up on any snow coating. The Canadian HRDPS (updated recently) has been pretty good lately and it’s why I included its graphic yesterday. Perhaps it over-estimated snowfall somewhat but the coverage seems pretty good.
Update Tue 1/31 10:45 PM — Tonight’s models have the already minimal dusting very scattered west of the Delaware river with any coating most likely in NJ. NBM model has only 60% chance of 0.10 inches of snow.
Several models have joined in with forecasting a light coating of snow ending around daybreak to 8 AM Wednesday. (The current NBM stands out as forecasting no snow accumulation.)
Here’s the latest Canadian HRDPS forecast —
Today’s 18z HRDPS shows a possible coating of snow by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will drop below freezing and it may be slippery out early in the morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Temperatures rise well above freezing and there won’t be much left by late morning.
Update Sun 01/29 @ 9:26 PM — Just an update on the snow potential, or lack thereof. As mentioned over the past week, the period between Feb 2 and Feb 6th might hold promise for snow lovers.
Alas, not the case. Our best bet was Sunday night into next Monday (the 6th) and it’s going to be too warm for snow
Here’s the latest NAEFS showing coastal low pressure brushing us, but temperatures are too warm here for snow —
NAEFS shows critical temperatures too warm for snow. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Go Eagles!
Update Sat 01/28 @ 9:51 AM —Despite the current sunshine, the models continue to forecast cloudiness to develop late morning as a warm front-like scenario develops over us.
For Sunday, more models have joined the forecast for light showers to develop in Philadelphia about 3 PM Sunday as the cold front approaches and dissipates.
Previously Posted Fri 5:17 PM —
Warm air aloft moving in from the southwest (a pseudo warm front) will cause an increase in cloudiness on Saturday afternoon.
The warm front continues north of us on Sunday as a cold front tries to move through during the afternoon hours. The cold front’s movement is impeded by high pressure in the Atlantic and it dissipates, but not before causing a few very light showers in the western suburbs into Philadelphia.
Very light amounts are forecast for Philadelphia, on the order of 0.02 inches about 3 PM or so, having minimum impact on the Eagles game.
Saturday
Sunny in the morning, considerable cloudiness in the afternoon. (Similar to the past few days). Mild. Somewhat windy and gusty.
High temperature 48.7º sd 1.1º ( NBM model, location – Blue Bell, PA)
Sunday
The cold front dissipates as it approaches Philadelphia but very light shower activity makes it through about 3 PM or so. Not all models are on board with these light showers. The ECMWF has been consistent. Cloudy and windy.
NAM-NEST forecast total precip by 7 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)
High temperature 52.2º sd 1.2º ( NBM model – location Lincoln Financial Field, PA)
Winds at the Linc
NBM wind meteogram for location Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Regarding Potential Snow here in Philadelphia:
Update Sat 1/28 6:26 PM — Cancel these chances of snow; the latest models have trended warmer with precipitation moving mostly to our south.
There’s a chance of an “over-running” event with moisture moving over a stalled frontal boundary late Tuesday night into next Wednesday, Feb 1st.
There’s another chance of a similar event next Sunday night into next Monday, Feb 6th.
Snow lovers- don’t get too excited… we’re talking about 1/2″ or so each ‘event’ with possible changeover to rain or freezing rain. No major storms showing in the models.
