Brief Update: The 2 PM (18z) model runs are coming in. Here are the trends—
The storm can best be seen as coming in three parts:
Heavy rain starts 5-6 PM (Blue Bell) and moves out quicker than previously forecast. High winds peak about 8PM. Rain tapers off after 9-10 PM. QPF is down to about 1 inch
Isolated, possibly heavy, thunderstorms again between midnight and 3 AM.
On Friday, upper low combines with surface low pressure over us. Additional heavy rain/thunderstorms morning and early afternoon. Additional 1 inch of rain possible Less wind.
Brief Update: Latest NAM-NEST and HRRR not appreciably changed. Total precipitation (QPF) about 1.25-2.00 inches. First line of storms moves in between 3 -5 PM. Below is NAM-NEST Simulated Radar forecast for 4:30PM
This morning’s NAM-NEST 4:30 PM Simulated Radar (click on image for larger view)
Some of the severe weather parameters have decreased since earlier, and it appears that most of the severe weather most likely in central Pennsylvania.
However, this area of energy may arrive partially intact between midnight and 3 AM, with isolated severe thunderstorms.
So there’s three parts to this weather event:
Main area of heavy rain and wind late this afternoon into evening.
Isolated severe storms after midnight.
Additional showers and thunderstorms Friday morning and afternoon.
