Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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The axis of rain was further north than had been forecast by many models yesterday. The Canadian HRDPS was an outlier and offered the correct forecast, somewhat followed by the GFS and ECMWF.

As mentioned, the upper air pattern for the weekend as forecast several days ago has become less amplified in the Northeastern US. It will still get colder, but not as cold as previously thought.

Here’s the latest NAEFS forecast for Sunday, showing a high pressure ridge with two centers that will bring cold but fair weather to us—

Today’s 12z NAEFS shows to centers of high pressure keeping clear skies over us. Low pressure off the SE coast will stay well to our south. The 540 thickness line (red contour) will be right over us. In winter, this is often the general dividing line between rain and snow, neither will we be seeing. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Saturday

Sunny and colder. Breezy, especially mid day.

High temperature 53º ( NBM model— location Blue Bell, PA)
High temperature 55º ( NBM model— location Philadelphia, PA)
uncertainty-low; sd of about ± 1.3º

Sunday

Continued sunny and cold. Light winds.

High temperature 48º ( NBM model— location Blue Bell, PA)
High temperature 50º ( NBM model— location Philadelphia, PA)
uncertainty-average; sd of about ± 1.7º