Only a day after posting that the deterministic GFS and NAM models have the snow well to our east missing us, today’s models GFS and NAM have jumped onto the snow bandwagon with the statistical models with the light snow occurring before daybreak on Saturday and continuing during the daytime hours. Currently the NAM is showing 2-3 inches in PHL!
The statistical models have been consistently predicting light snow in NJ and extreme SE Pennsylvania for several days. Interestingly, the statistical models have reduce the probability just as the GFS and NAM show increased amounts of snow.
It now appears that the coastal low pressure system will intensify enough to throw snow back into our area through the day Saturday; the snow will be light in PHL with somewhat heavier accumulations in NJ. The NAM now shows 2-3 inches in PHL. The GFS shows 3-4 inches with heavier amounts in NJ! I expect the predicted amounts to change by Saturday.
The GFS and NAM have continued their forecast of having the low pressure system move east of the coastline and having the snow miss us. The statistical models now show reduced chances of it changing paths.
So cancel that light snow for Friday into Saturday. There’s still a chance of flurries on Saturday. So the GFS and especially the NAM seemed to have done better than the statistical models with their storm track this time around. I’ll update Friday evening.
The newer statistical models are showing an increased signal for the possibility of light snow Friday evening into early Saturday morning as a coastal low off the coast brushes our area. Because the precipitation arrives at night, temperatures will likely be cold enough for snow accumulation. Current predictions are a coating to 3 inches, more in NJ than extreme southeastern PA . I’ve noticed the new statistical models have been pretty good in forecasting precipitation in recent months.
The latest deterministic models (GFS, NAM) aren’t so sure about this, keeping the snow off the coast.
By the way, the NWS will be unveiling a new statistical forecast system sometime this month called the “National Blend of Models”. The NBM promises to provide increased forecast accuracy.
