The short answer is “probably possibly yes”.

This morning’s NAM and GFS models had a wide difference of opinions, with the NAM shearing the low pressure system with only a 35% chance of rain and the GFS had a more developed low with an 85% chance of rain. (The last time I saw this divergence, we had that “fizzled” snowstorm in February that made the weathercasters look bad.)

This afternoon’s run of the NAM has returned to a rainier scenario. So Saturday looks cloudy with showers likely in the morning and mid-day.   Temps will be cool , in the low 70s. The positive view is that any rain we get will likely be over in the early evening, in time for the fireworks.

With  the divergence in model solutions, there is below average confidence in this forecast.

Updated 7 PM:  The amount of precipitation predicted by the afternoon models continues to decrease around PHL.  Any showers will likely end by mid afternoon.   Still a low confidence situation.

Updated 10:30 PM: Tonight’s NAM still cranks out rain for Saturday, ending mid to late afternoon.