Commentary

WHY IS IT RAINING AT 10 AM? I THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO RAIN LATER?

Why is it raining now at 10AM? I thought it was going to start in the afternoon?

That’s a great question. I have no answer.

Every model from last night (RAP, HRRR, NAM, HIRESW, NAM-NEST, GFS, etc) had the rain starting about 1-3 PM. Even more incredible is that the new models from this morning 12z (8AM EDT) were still holding off the showers until the afternoon here.

Current Radar 10:20 AM EDT—

NEXRAD radar with Satellite Water Vapor superimposed. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Here’s the latest NAM model which is representative of all the NOAA and Canadian model forecasts for today—

This morning’s NAM model forecast for 10 AM, still showing the showers about 2 hours to our west. This model, which was run only two hours ago, was representative of all the US models from this morning and last night. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Interestingly, I took a look at the 2 AM German ICON model forecast for this morning. Not a bad forecast ! Would I have used its forecast instead of all the NOAA models. Not likely—

ICON model 06z rain and cloud forecast for 10 AM today. Clearly it did something right. (Click on image for a larger view.)