A wet scenario will setup for this weekend. It’s a setup we’ve seen several times this summer season— an upper low pressure system is expected to close off to our west and a stream of moist unstable air will flow into our region.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday evening, but the models have increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the daytime hours of Saturday into Saturday evening. Some of the showers could be heavy.
The skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, although some breaks or brightening skies are possible, especially mid-day hours. Highs about 81 with high humidity.
A similar situation is expected for Sunday, although the shower activity is expected to be lower than Saturday. Brighter skies and some sunny breaks possible on Sunday, but widely scattered showers possible any time, especially later in the afternoon. High again about 81,
Regarding forecast confidence, the GFS, ECMWF and the NBM are in good agreement. The NAM is significantly less robust with the shower coverage, especially for Sunday. I’ll update later.