Sunday 2 PM Update: The upper air disturbance mentioned below to cause Sunday’s mid day cloudiness has moved through faster than predicted. This morning’s NAM and GFS has the cloudiness lingering even longer into the late afternoon.
Sunday Update: The upper air disturbance mentioned below to cause Sunday’s mid day cloudiness has moved through faster than predicted. It’s cloudy at 7 AM and cloudiness should break by the afternoon.
Sat Update:There wasn’t as much cloudiness as predicted. A brief period around noontime.
High pressure that moved in behind the front on Friday will slowly move off the coast over the weekend.
Saturday: Increasing cloudiness and cold in the morning, and considerable cloudiness and cold in the afternoon. Calm winds Saturday morning will become light and southerly during Saturday afternoon. A return of moisture aloft and an upper air cyclonic flow will create mid to upper level cloudiness for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The cloud deck will keep the temps from rising above 43.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and milder. A mild flow of air from the southwest will allow mostly sunny skies and high temps near 55. (There may be a period of cloudiness mid-day as an upper air disturbance moves through.)
It now looks like there will be no snow for us from the coastal storm predicted to form on Tuesday — by the time the cold air moves in, the low pressure system will be too far to our north and east.
This was more accurately predicted by the new GFS model than the Canadian Global. The European model was doing it’s own thing with this storm regarding timing. The major models are showing better agreement on this today than they had several days ago.
This will be the first winter that we’ll relying on the new GFS model. The new GFS, referred to as the FV3-GFS when it was in development, became operational this past June.
The GFS model was further updated and enhanced just this past week when it was upgraded to version 15.2