Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Sun @ 7:53 AM— My home security camera showed a dusting of snow on cars about 2 AM.

Here’s an update to my original Sunday forecast—

For today, Sunday, clouds should break for a period of sunshine about mid-day. As has been the case recently, there’s quite a bit of model statistical spread regarding the amount of cloudiness, but I’ll go with the optimistic NBM mean cloud cover. Clouds return later in the afternoon and winds pick up and become gusty. High 49 (Blue Bell) 51 (PHL)

Another series of windy, cold days the beginning of this upcoming week.

Sat @ 6:50 PM— Tonight’s GFS has no snow falling tonight in the immediate PHL area. However there are several models (SREF, HRRR, NBM, Canadian GEM) that have light snow flurries/snow showers moving through around midnight through 3 AM.

Temperatures today did not warm up to levels predicted by last night’s models and current temperatures are a few degrees colder than current models are forecasting.

Assuming temps are a bit colder tonight, areas just north of the city may see a dusting/coating of snow at daybreak. These are the areas with possible accumulation—

Canadian GEM Regional snow accumulation forecast. (White area just north of Philadelphia is a dusting or less.) (Click on image for larger view.)

Sat @ 9:51 AM — This morning’s models show snow flurries between midnight and 3 AM, but without a dusting accumulation in the immediate PHL area. Minimal precip and temperatures at the surface have trended warmer in the models.

NAM-NEST forecast for 4 AM Sunday showing 32º line (white line) is north of PHL and dusting accumulation possible north of Quakertown and west of HoneyBrook. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Fri 10:03 PM— Tonight’s short range models have snow flurries after midnight Saturday into predawn Sunday. A dusting of snow is possible.

Initial Post Discussion—[post_published]

The strong pressure gradient that gave us the blustery winds today will gradually reduce as low pressure moves off to the northeast and high pressure builds in for Saturday.

Another low in the Great Lakes area will transfer its energy to a low pressure system that develops near Long Island on Sunday.

GFS forecast for Sunday 6 AM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Most models have the main Great Lakes low weakening so as to have no precipitation for us. Some statistical model members show just enough lift and moisture for some light snow flurries after midnight Saturday.

It will be colder than season averages. (Seasonal average high temps are 49º-50º)

Saturday

It will be sunny and windy. Less windy than Friday. The pressure gradient causing the winds will lessen and the gusty winds will diminish during the afternoon. High Temps 41.8º ± 1.7º (NBM model Blue Bell)

After midnight Saturday into the predawn hours of Sunday, there’s a chance of light snow flurries.

Cloudy early. Sunday will become partly sunny/partly cloudy. Light winds early, but increase in the afternoon. Temperatures reach their highs late in the day. High temps 46.0º ± 1.5º (NBM model Blue Bell)

A cold front moves through Sunday night with winds increasing for Monday.

Winds
NBM (Click on image for a larger view.)