#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx
Wednesday Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 03/26/25 @ 9:48 AM — Several models (ECMWF, Canadian RGEM, German ICON) are showing some fast moving instability showers moving through here early afternoon. There will be some sunshine in the [late] afternoon, according to the HRRR, but not as much as forecast yesterday. So clouds and some sprinkles is a better bet for late morning and early afternoon.
Current Water Vapor shows showers likely to pass to our north, but positive upward motion just to our west may produce showers here between noon and 1 PM and in NJ—
Wednesday through Saturday
Posted Tuesday 03/25/25 @ 6:04 PM — The fast moving low pressure system expected to form this evening will remain to our south. Rain may extend north into South Jersey, but the Philadelphia area will remain dry. Colder weather for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures around 50º with sunny skies. A warm up Friday. A big surprise for Saturday- high temperatures may approach 80º!
A rainy period develops Sunday into next Monday.
Winds Return for Tuesday
Posted Monday 03/24/25 @ 5:50 PM — Windy conditions, especially Tuesday morning, with gusts 25-30 mph. Highs return to about 57º-58º after a cold morning. Some clouds move in late afternoon.
Posted Monday 03/24/25 @ 8:58 AM — Based on radar and the latest HRRR, the rain will be ending about 2 PM-3 PM around Philadelphia and about 5 PM to 6 PM at the Jersey Shore. (The Canadian RGEM has the rain ending about 3-4 PM here with some sun possibly by 6 PM. )
As for that potential ‘experiment’ with the ECMWF-AI model, its forecast for some rain here is now late Tuesday night, with light rain ending for the daytime Wednesday. The GFS has moved closer to the ECMWF-AI with some rain in NJ late Tuesday night.
Originally Posted Sun @ 4:25 PM — —Low pressure and an associated cold front will move through on Monday. Rainfall looks to be in the 0.45″ range, but several models have as much as 0.75″ of rain falling over our area. Rain starts before daybreak Monday and continues through at least 4 PM, when any remaining precipitation will become light and widely scattered.
Overall, this coming week looks to be colder than recent weeks with a persistent dip in the jet stream over the Central and Northeastern US.
The current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model parameters and MRMS radar shows the setup that will be persistent—
Of interest is the energy in the Pacific Northwest diving southward into the upper trough. The latest ECMWF-AI model shows another storm developing Wednesday which lends itself to another “AI model Experiment“.
Basically this AI model shows much more development of this Wednesday low pressure system than the either the GFS or ECMWF—
Yet another system associated with a warm front approaches Friday or Saturday. Temperatures look to moderate by next weekend.